Seven in ten back same-sex marriage legislation - Fairfax Ipsos Poll

Two-thirds (65%) are ‘certain to vote’ in the postal vote on same-sex marriage.

Seven in ten back same-sex marriage legislation - Fairfax Ipsos Poll

Key findings

  • Two-thirds (65%) are ‘certain to vote’ in the postal vote on same-sex marriage.
  • 70% of those ‘certain to vote’ will vote in favour of legislation for same-sex marriage.

Same-sex marriage plebiscite

Only two-thirds (65%) of the public say they are ‘certain to vote’ in the forthcoming postal vote on same sex marriage.  Turnout looks to be higher among women than men, with 72% of women saying they are ‘certain to vote’ compared to 59% among men.  Those on middle ($40k-$100k per annum) and higher household incomes ($100k+ per annum) are also more likely to describe themselves as ‘certain to vote’ than lower income households (Under $40k per annum); 70%, 72% and 53% ‘certain to vote’ respectively.  Interestingly, likely turnout is consistently high across all age groups.

Seven in ten (70%) of those certain to vote say they will be voting in favour of legislation on same-sex marriage; a quarter (26%) will vote against the legislation.  While Coalition voters are split on the issue (with 52% voting in favour and 42% against), the overwhelming majority of Labor (86%) and Green (94%) voters will back the legislation.

QSEP6.  Will you be voting in favour or against the legislation on marriage between same-sex couples?

Base:  All certain to vote

 

(%)

All

Coalition voters

Labor voters

Green voters

In favour

70

52

86

94

Against

26

42

10

2

Don’t know/Not yet decided

4

7

3

4

Net in favour

+44

+10

+76

+92

While the proportion voting in favour of legislation on marriage between same-sex couples declines with age, the balance of opinion is in favour of legislation among all ages, with those aged 55+ more evenly divided on the issue

QSEP6.  Will you be voting in favour or against the legislation on marriage between same-sex couples?

Base:  All certain to vote

 

(%)

All

Aged 18-24

Aged 25-39

Aged 40-54

Aged 55+

In favour

70

85

79

74

54

Against

26

12

16

22

40

Don’t know/Not yet decided

4

3

5

4

6

Net in favour

+44

+73

+63

+52

+14

 

Questions

Q.SEP5 How likely are you to vote in the upcoming postal plebiscite on the legalisation of same-sex marriage, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means absolutely certain to vote and 1 means that you are absolutely certain not to vote?

Q.SEP6 Will you be voting in favour or against the legalisation of marriage between same-sex couples?

 

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 6-9 September 2017

Sample size: 1,400 respondents

Sample: National, aged 18+, 31% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.

Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.

Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample

Analysis: The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.