Large majorities of Democrats more likely to support candidate pushing for Roe v. Wade replacement law

An Ipsos poll exclusive for Reuters, fielded May 3, 2022 after the leak of a Supreme Court draft decision challenging Roe v. Wade, finds that in the upcoming November elections, two-thirds of Americans (63%) would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law legalizing abortion, replacing Roe if it is struck down.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Haley Gullquist Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, May 3, 2022 – An Ipsos poll exclusive for Reuters, fielded May 3, 2022 after the leak of a Supreme Court draft decision challenging Roe v. Wade, finds that in the upcoming November elections, two-thirds of Americans (63%) would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law legalizing abortion, replacing Roe if it is struck down. This is driven by the 78% of Democrats who are more likely to vote for this candidate, while just under half of Republicans state the same (49%). Independents stand in the middle of Democrats and Republicans, with 59% more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law legalizing abortion. Over half of Americans are more likely to support a candidate who thinks abortion should be legal (59%), motivated by three-quarters of Democrats (74%).

A third of Americans (33%) would be angry if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. These feelings are primarily driven by Democrats (51%), who are twice as likely as Republicans (24%) and Independents (25%) to state that they would be angry. Similarly, twenty-nine percent of Americans would be afraid if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, with Democrats nearly doubling Republicans and Independents (40% vs. 22% and 23%, respectively). Along those lines, half of Democrats (54%) say that a decision to overturn Roe would make the United States a worse place to live versus a plurality of Republicans (43%) and Independents (42%) who say it would make no difference.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted on May 3, 2022. For this survey, a sample of 998 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes N=294 Republicans, N=385 Democrats, and N=319 Independents / others. 

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and party identification.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,000, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.5 percentage points). 

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 7.5 precentage points for Republicans, +/- 6.5 for Democrats, +/- 7.5 for independents/others. 

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest Insights and Analytics company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Haley Gullquist Research Manager, US, Public Affairs

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