Washington, DC, May 3, 2022 – An Ipsos poll exclusive for Reuters, fielded May 3, 2022 after the leak of a Supreme Court draft decision challenging Roe v. Wade, finds that in the upcoming November elections, two-thirds of Americans (63%) would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law legalizing abortion, replacing Roe if it is struck down. This is driven by the 78% of Democrats who are more likely to vote for this candidate, while just under half of Republicans state the same (49%). Independents stand in the middle of Democrats and Republicans, with 59% more likely to vote for a candidate who supports passing a law legalizing abortion. Over half of Americans are more likely to support a candidate who thinks abortion should be legal (59%), motivated by three-quarters of Democrats (74%).
A third of Americans (33%) would be angry if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. These feelings are primarily driven by Democrats (51%), who are twice as likely as Republicans (24%) and Independents (25%) to state that they would be angry. Similarly, twenty-nine percent of Americans would be afraid if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, with Democrats nearly doubling Republicans and Independents (40% vs. 22% and 23%, respectively). Along those lines, half of Democrats (54%) say that a decision to overturn Roe would make the United States a worse place to live versus a plurality of Republicans (43%) and Independents (42%) who say it would make no difference.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted on May 3, 2022. For this survey, a sample of 998 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes N=294 Republicans, N=385 Democrats, and N=319 Independents / others.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2019 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and party identification.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,000, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.5 percentage points).
The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 7.5 precentage points for Republicans, +/- 6.5 for Democrats, +/- 7.5 for independents/others.
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