Accuracy of Ipsos MORI Scottish Election final poll

Ipsos MORI statement on the accuracy of our final poll in the 2021 Scottish Election.

The author(s)

  • Emily Gray Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
  • Rachel Ormston Research Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
  • Catriona Millar Ipsos MORI Scotland
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We are pleased with the accuracy of our final poll of the 2021 Scottish Election, conducted in partnership with STV News. On the constituency vote, our average error across all parties was 1.1%. On the list vote, our average error across all parties was 1.2%. Our prediction was within the margin of error (+/- 4 percentage points) for all parties. Nonetheless, as we do after every election, we will now carefully review our performance and where it can be improved, learning lessons to help us continue to be accurate in the future.

We are also proud that our research helped to tell the story of how voters were thinking and feeling about Scotland and about the future of the Union throughout the election campaign. Our polling in Scotland and the wider UK, our Election Diaries work among undecided voters in partnership with Holyrood Magazine, and the wider work our team has done – from podcasts to media interviews to webinars – have all contributed to telling the story of this important Scottish election. Please visit our Scottish Parliament Election 2021 page for findings.

Particular thanks go to all the people across Scotland who participated in our research and to our telephone interviewers.

Ipsos MORI Polling Accuracy for the Scottish 2021 Holyrood Elections - Constituency

Ipsos MORI Polling Accuracy for the Scottish 2021 Holyrood Elections - Regional List

The author(s)

  • Emily Gray Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
  • Rachel Ormston Research Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
  • Catriona Millar Ipsos MORI Scotland

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