End Of The Baghdad Bounce

The British public has swiftly re-focused on domestic affairs since the end of the war in Iraq, and Tony Blair has found a rise in his satisfaction ratings to be short lived.

The British public has swiftly re-focused on domestic affairs since the end of the war in Iraq, and Tony Blair has found a rise in his satisfaction ratings to be short lived.

Last month's MORI Political Monitor saw Blair with his first positive rating (of +2 points) since January 2002: 47% of British people were satisfied with the job he is doing as Prime Minister compared to 45% who were dissatisfied. But this positive rating has slipped to a -16 in May: 38% are satisfied and 54% dissatisfied.

Labour's lead on the Tories has also closed somewhat. The figures, based on those absolutely certain to vote, show Labour on 39% (down four), the Conservatives on 31% (up two) and the Lib Dems on 22% (up one). Although still with a negative rating, Iain Duncan Smith's rating has improved slightly, from a -25 points rating last month to -21 points now. Currently, 23% of the public are satisfied with his performance, with 44% dissatisfied. Among Conservative supporters, Mr Duncan Smith records a positive rating (46:35) for the first time since September 2002.

The NHS remains at the top of the list of issues named as most important to Britain today (39%), followed by race/immigration (33%) and education (30%). Europe has risen from seven per cent last month to 22% this month, reflecting broad publicity in the press on this issue. For the second month in a row, defence and foreign affairs is mentioned by around a quarter (24%) down from around two-thirds during the first three months of the year.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,793 adults aged 18+ at 185 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 22-28 May 2003.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  • Results are based on all respondents unless otherwise stated
  • An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All absolutely certain to vote (971)

 %
Conservative31
Labour39
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist4
Green Party1
Democratic/UKIP Party1
Other1
 
Lab lead (177%)+8
 
Would not vote*
Undecided4
Refused1

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 1,793 British adults 18+

 %
Conservative28
Labour43
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist4
Green Party2
Democratic/UKIP Party1
Other2
 
Lab lead (177%)+15
 
Would not vote12
Undecided8
Refused1

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Duncan Smith / Mr Kennedy are doing their job? Base: 931 British adults 18+

 SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowIndex
 %%%177%
Government306010-30
Blair38548-16
Duncan Smith234433-21
Kennedy382636+12

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Base: 931 British adults 18+

 Q7Q7/8
 %%
National Health Service/Hospitals1239
Race relations/immigration/immigrants1733
Education/schools930
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism625
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism1324
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 1322
Economy/economic situation613
Pensions/social security110
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry48
Poverty/inequality16
Taxation16
Drug abuse15
Housing15
Transport/public transport15
Morality/individual behaviour13
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament13
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages*3
Inflation/prices*2
Local government/council tax*2
Pollution/environment*2
Countryside/rural life*1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound*1
Animal welfare01
Northern Ireland01
Petrol prices/fuel01
AIDS**
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform**
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease0*
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis0*
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods0*
Privatisation0*
Trade unions/strikes0*
 
Other413
Don't know75

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 931 British adults 18+

 %
Improve14
Stay the same42
Get worse38
Don't know6
 
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]-24

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,793 British adults 18+

 %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote53
95
87
75
63
59
41
33
22
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote11
Don't know1

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