Expected general election outcome 1979-2005

Q What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming election?

See also - actual general election results

1979

Q Which party do you think will win the next General Election?

  29 March 1979
  %
Conservative 65
Labour 24
Liberal 1
Other *
Don't know 15

Base: 1,075 GB adults aged 18+

 

Q Do you think that one political party will achieve an overall majority in the General Election or do you think there is likely to be a stalemate?

  17 April 1979
  %
Overall majority 46
Stalemate 42
Don't know 12

Base: 1,032 GB adults aged 18+

 

Q which party do you think will win the largest number of seats at the General Election?

  17 April 1979
  %
Conservatives 59
Labour 26
Other/don't know 15

Base: 1,032 GB adults aged 18+

 

1983

Q From this card, what do you think is the most likely result of the General Election?

  Nov 1981  Sept 1982 May 1983
  % % %
An overall Conservative majority 11 49 66
An overall Labour majority 16 18 11
An overall Alliance majority 37 4 1
No party with an overall majority 21 22 14
Don't know 15  7 8

Base: c. 1,000 GB adults aged 18+

 

1992

Q From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?

  11-12 March 1992 16 March 1992
  % %
An overall majority of Conservative MPs 30 28
An overall majority of Labour MPs 17 19
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Conservative Party 20 18
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Labour Party 19 20
Other 2 3
Don't know 12 12

Base: c. 1,000 GB adults aged 18+

 

1997

Q From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?

  20-25 August 1996
  %
An overall majority of Conservative MPs 18
An overall majority of Labour MPs 46
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Conservative Party 8
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Labour Party 11
Other 1
Don't know 15

Base: 892 GB adults aged 18+

 

Q From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming general election?

  21-24 March 1997 30 April 1997
  % %
A large majority for Labour (Labour majority of more than 100 MPs) 16 17
A medium-sized majority for Labour (Labour majority of 51-100 MPs) 29 31
A small majority for Labour (Labour majority of up to 50 MPs) 26 24
No overall majority for either party 8 18
A small majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of up to 50 MPs) 9 5
A medium-sized majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of 51-100 MPs) 3 1
A large majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of more than 100 MPs) 1 *
Don’t know 8 4

Base: c. 1,500 - 2,000 GB adults aged 18+

 

2001

Q What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?

  4-6 Jan 2001 10-12 May 2001
  % %
Conservative victory 13 5
Labour victory 60 78
No overall majority/hung Parliament 5 2
Lib Dem victory 1 *
Other * *
Don’t know 20 14

Base: 1,021 GB adults aged 18+

 

2005

Q What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?

  28-29 April 2005
  %
Conservative overall majority of more than 100 seats 2
Conservative overall majority under 100 seats 3
Conservatives being the biggest party but having no overall majority 3
Labour being the biggest party but having no overall majority 14
Labour overall majority of under 100 seats 40
Labour overall majority of more than 100 seats 22
Liberal Democrat victory 1
Other 1
Don't know 14

Base: 1,007 GB adults aged 18+

2010/2015

Q As you probably know, the general election may result in a clear majority for one party that can make decisions without consulting, or it may result in a Hung Parliament where no party has an overall majority so parties must compromise and reach agreement to make decisions.

Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely?

  March 2010 April 2015
  % %
A Conservative majority government 24 11
A Labour majority government 10 6
A hung parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party 37 45
 A hung parliament with Labour as the largest party  22  25
A Liberal Democrat majoirty * *
A hung parliament with the Liberal Democrats as the biggest party * 1
Other * 3
Don’t know 6 8
 Hung parliament  59  70
 Conservative largest party  61  56
 Labour largest party  32  31

Base: c. 1,000 GB adults aged 18+

 

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