Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2007

Ipsos MORI's April Political Monitor shows the Conservatives leading Labour by seven points (38% vs. 31%). Ipsos MORI has not consistently measured a Conservative lead of this size since 1992.

Ipsos MORI's April Political Monitor shows the Conservatives leading Labour by seven points (38% vs. 31%). Ipsos MORI has not consistently measured a Conservative lead of this size since 1992. This seven point lead represents a swing to the Conservatives of five percentage points since the 2005 Election. Similarly, while David Cameron's own ratings are still lower than when he first became leader, he is now very clearly out-performing the three previous Leaders of the Opposition at this stage in his tenure of office, in terms of public satisfaction with the way he does his job, putting further pressure on the Labour Party to renew itself.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,073 adults aged 18+ at 210 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 19-25 April 2007.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  • Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available upon request.

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,163)

160 %
Conservative 38
Labour 31
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 20
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 1
Other 3
160
Lab lead (177%) -7
160
Would not vote 2
Undecided 10
Refused 3

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All naming a party (2,073)

160 %
Conservative 34
Labour 36
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 20
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 1
Other 4
160
Lab lead (177%) +2
160
Would not vote 17
Undecided 15
Refused 3

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: 1,039 British adults 18+

160 Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
160 % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 27 66 7 -39
Blair (Q4) 28 66 6 -38
Cameron (Q5) 30 33 37 -3
Campbell (Q6) 22 32 46 -10

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: All party supporters

160 Base Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
160 n % % % %
Government (Q3) 268 52 40 8 +12
Blair (Q4) 268 57 41 2 +16
Cameron (Q5) 257 55 21 24 +34
Campbell (Q6) 148 54 27 18 +27

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 1,039 British adults 18+

160 Q7 Q7/8
160 % %
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 16 40
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 20 36
National Health Service/Hospitals 12 36
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 14 27
Education/schools 4 19
Pollution/environment 5 12
Economy/economic situation/benefits 3 10
Housing 3 10
Taxation 2 9
Drug abuse 1 9
Morality/individual behaviour 2 8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 8
Pensions/social security 1 8
Poverty/inequality 2 5
Inflation/prices 1 5
Public services in general 1 4
Transport/public transport 1 4
Local government/council tax 1 3
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution 1 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
AIDS * 1
Animal welfare * 1
Countryside/rural life * 1
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament * 1
Petrol prices/fuel * 1
Privatisation * 1
Trade unions/strikes 0 1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * *
Tsunami/South East Asia * *
Bird flu/Flu pandemic 0 *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound 0 *
Other 2 5
Don't know 4 4

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,039 British adults 18+

160 %
Improve 10
Stay the same 43
Get worse 41
Don't know 6
Ipsos MORI EOI -31

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 2,073 British adults 18+

160 %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 56
9 5
8 7
7 4
6 3
5 7
4 1
3 2
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 2
Refused *

Q11 Which party did you vote for at the General Election on May 5th 2005? If you are not sure, or did not vote, please say so. Base: 2,073 British adults 18+

160 %
Conservative 19
Labour 33
Lib Dems 13
Scottish/Welsh nationalist 2
UKIP 1
Green 1
Other 1
Did not vote 21
Too young 3
Can't remember 3
Refused 3

More insights about Public Sector