Ipsos MORI Political Monitor August 2007

Ipsos MORI's August Political Monitor puts Labour five points ahead of the Conservatives (41% vs 36%), with the Liberal Democrat share at 16%. Gordon Brown's personal rating shows 43% of the population satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Prime Minister.

Ipsos MORI's August Political Monitor for The Sun, conducted face-to-face between 23-29 August, puts Labour five points ahead of the Conservatives (41% vs 36%), with the Liberal Democrat share at 16%. Gordon Brown's personal rating shows 43% of the population satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Prime Minister, and 23% dissatisfied, yielding a 'net satisfaction' (satisfied minus dissatisfied) score of +19, an increase of 3 points since last month. However, a third (34%) still say they 'don't know'.

More than half of people (55%) now rate crime / law and order as one of the most important issues facing Britain today, an increase of 20 points since July 2007, while the proportion mentioning defence and foreign affairs has fallen 14 points, from 39% to 25%.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,941 adults aged 18+ at 191s sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 23-29 August 2007.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  • Download the data tabulations pdf, 255KB

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,023)

160 %
Conservative 36
Labour 41
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 16
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 1
UK Independence Party 1
Other 2
160
Lab lead (177%) +5
160
Would not vote 2
Undecided 7
Refused 3

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All naming a party (1,941)

160 %
Conservative 31
Labour 45
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 16
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 1
UK Independence Party *
Other 3
160
Lab lead (177%) +14
160
Would not vote 14
Undecided 10
Refused 2

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: 975 British adults 18+

160 Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
160 % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 35 54 11 -19
Brown (Q4) 43 23 34 +20
Cameron (Q5) 29 39 32 -10
Campbell (Q6) 23 32 46 -9

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: All party supporters

160 Base Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
160 n % % % %
Government (Q3) 321 62 28 10 +34
Brown (Q4) 321 63 7 29 +56
Cameron (Q5) 224 52 32 15 +20
Campbell (Q6) 115 53 24 23 +29

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 975 British adults 18+

160 Q7 Q7/8
160 % %
Crime/law & order/violence/ vandalism/anti-social (yob) behaviour 30 55
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 18 35
National Health Service/Hospitals/ Health care 6 26
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 12 25
Education/schools 3 19
Economy/economic situation 3 9
Housing 3 9
Morality/individual behaviour 3 9
Pollution/environment 2 8
Drug abuse 1 8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 7
Poverty/inequality 2 6
Taxation 2 6
Pensions/social security/benefits 1 5
Public services in general 1 4
Inflation/prices 1 3
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution * 3
Transport/public transport * 3
Local government/council tax * 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament * 2
AIDS * 1
Bird flu/Flu pandemic * 1
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis * 1
Petrol prices/fuel * 1
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * 1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods - 1
Countryside/rural life * *
Animal welfare - *
Northern Ireland - *
Privatisation - *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound - -
Trade unions/strikes - -
Tsunami/South East Asia - -
Other 3 5
Don't know 5 4

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 975 British adults 18+

160 %
Improve 12
Stay the same 43
Get worse 37
Don't know 8
Ipsos MORI EOI -25

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,941 British adults 18+

160 %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 52
9 6
8 7
7 5
6 3
5 7
4 2
3 2
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 3
Refused *

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