Ipsos MORI Political Monitor December

More of the public are satisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer than are satisfied with the performance of any of the three party leaders. However, Gordon Brown's personal ratings are the lowest recorded by Ipsos MORI since 1997 with the exception of the fuel crisis in late 2000.

More of the public are satisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer than are satisfied with the performance of any of the three party leaders. However, Gordon Brown's personal ratings are the lowest recorded by Ipsos MORI since 1997 with the exception of the fuel crisis in late 2000.

Over two in five (42%) people say they are satisfied with Gordon Brown's performance with as many saying they are dissatisfied -- giving a net satisfaction rating of zero. When Ipsos MORI last measured public approval of Gordon Brown in February 2006, 47% of the public said they were satisfied with his performance (5 points higher than now) and 36% dissatisfied (6 points lower than now). The lowest rating recorded for Brown was in September 2000 during the fuel crisis when his net satisfaction ratings fell to -21 (34% satisfied; 55% dissatisfied).

Still, the Chancellor's net ratings are better than for the Government as a whole (-38), for Tony Blair (-34), for David Cameron (-5) or for Sir Menzies Campbell (-9).

The monthly Political Monitor survey shows the Conservatives retain a small voting intentions lead of Labour of one percentage point among the 54% of the public who say they are absolutely certain to vote in a General Election. Race/immigration (38%), defence / foreign affairs / terrorism (35%), crime / anti-social behaviour (33%) and the NHS (32%) remain the top issues the public say are facing the country today. The December Economic Optimism Index stands at minus 27, which is a small improvement from November (-33) and in line with public expectations this time last year.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,966 adults aged 18+ at 175 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 7-12 December 2006.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,075)

  %
Conservative 37
Labour 36
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 18
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Other 2
 
Lab lead (177%) -1
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 9
Refused 2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?Base: All naming a party (1,966)

  %
Conservative 34
Labour 40
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 18
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Other 1
 
Lab lead (177%) +6
 
Would not vote 14
Undecided 10
Refused 1

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?Q7 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % %
Government (Q3) 26 64 10 -38
Blair (Q4) 30 64 6 -34
Cameron (Q5) 28 33 39 -5
Campbell (Q6) 22 31 47 -9
Brown (Q7) 42 42 16 0

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?Q7 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?Base: All party supporters

  Base Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  n % % % %
Government (Q3) 302 48 42 9 +6
Blair (Q4) 302 58 37 5 +21
Cameron (Q5) 243 54 18 28 +36
Campbell (Q6) 161 45 23 32 +22
Brown (Q7) 302 65 20 15 +45

Q8 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Q9 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

  Q8 Q8/9
  % %
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 23 38
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 18 35
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 13 33
National Health Service/Hospitals 9 32
Education/schools 5 21
Pollution/environment 4 13
Pensions/social security 2 10
Economy/economic situation/benefits 3 9
Taxation 1 9
Housing 2 7
Morality/individual behaviour 2 6
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 6
Drug abuse 1 5
Poverty/inequality 1 5
Inflation/prices 1 4
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution 1 3
Public services in general * 3
Transport/public transport * 3
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
Petrol prices/fuel * 2
Countryside/rural life 1 1
Local government/council tax 1 1
Privatisation * 1
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * 1
Tsunami/South East Asia * 1
AIDS 0 1
Bird flu/Flu pandemic * *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * *
Trade unions/strikes * *
Animal welfare 0 *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 *
Other 1 4
Don't know 5 4

Q10 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 12
Stay the same 44
Get worse 39
Don't know 5
Ipsos MORI EOI -27

Q11 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?Base: 1,966 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 54
9 7
8 6
7 5
6 3
5 6
4 2
3 2
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 12
Don't know 0
Refused 2

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