Ipsos MORI's December Political Monitor (carried out by telephone between 12-14 December 2008 among 1,000 adults aged 18 and over) shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative party voting intention share has dropped slightly by one point to 39% since our November Political Monitor, and the Labour party share has also fallen slightly by two points to 35%.160The Liberal Democrat share is up three points to 15%. Public satisfaction with the Government and with Gordon Brown has decreased from last month as well (see below), although satisfaction with both still remains higher than their lowest points in July 2008.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown's personal ratings have fallen since last month: over half (54%) are dissatisfied with the job he is doing, and about two in five (38%) are satisfied, giving a net score (the percentage satisfied minus the percentage dissatisfied) of -16. This compares to a `net' score of -9 last month. His drop in popularity is especially marked among Labour party supporters, with two-thirds (67%) satisfied and 28% dissatisfied (compared to 77% satisfied and 18% dissatisfied in November).
More people remain satisfied than dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative party, although the figures show a small decline from last month. Satisfaction with Cameron is down two points to 43%, and dissatisfaction up two points to 38%.
Following the fall last month in public optimism about the economy after a `bailout bounce', this month sees a small increase in overall net optimism - although those who think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months still far outnumber those who think it will improve. The proportion of those who feel the economic condition of the country will improve in the next twelve months is at 18%, compared with 17% last month. Two-thirds (66%) think the economy will get worse, down from 68% last month. The Economic Optimism Index (those who think it will get better minus those who think it will get worse) is now at -48, compared with -51 last month.
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 12th-14th December 2008.160 Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't know" categories, or multiple answers.160 An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Voting intention figures exclude those who say they would not vote, are undecided or refuse to name a party.
Getting inside the jury room
Rachel Ormston describes the unique experience of creating a mock jury, to establish how does jury size, majority required, and the number of verdicts available affect what verdict jurors arrive at. The research was led by Ipsos MORI Scotland, with academics from the Universities of Glasgow and Warwick, and commissioned by the Scottish Government.