Ipsos MORI Political Monitor February

British electors' attitudes to the new Tory Leader David Cameron have not shifted over the past month, according to the latest Ipsos MORI's February Political Monitor for The Sun. The poll, conducted between 16 and 20 February among 1,958 British adults aged 18+, continues to show that over half the public (52%) are hesitant to express an opinion about the way David Cameron is doing his job.

British electors' attitudes to the new Tory Leader David Cameron have not shifted over the past month, according to the latest Ipsos MORI's February Political Monitor for The Sun. The poll, conducted between 16 and 20 February among 1,958 British adults aged 18+, continues to show that over half the public (52%) are hesitant to express an opinion about the way David Cameron is doing his job.

Among those who do have opinion, they split almost two to one in favour of Cameron's performance to date (31% satisfied vs. 16% dissatisfied) as was the case a month ago. Cameron will be disappointed to learn that the Tories are still running third among those 18-34, despite his comparative youth, and not improving the Conservatives standing among women from their performance at the election in May last year.

Ipsos MORI's poll also shows that Labour have now regained their three point lead over the Conservatives, matching the result at the General Election last May.

Of those electors who say they are certain to vote (58%) in an immediate General Election, 35% say they would vote Conservative (down 5 points from last month, but up 2 points from the General Election), 38% Labour (no change from last month, but also up 2 points since last May) and 20% Liberal Democrat (up 3 points from January, but down 3 since the election).

Labour's lead of 3 percentage points is the same margin of victory the party enjoyed over the Conservatives at the General Election last May.

While Tony Blair's popularity among the public continues to be low (-29%); twice as many people are dissatisfied (60%) with his performance as Prime Minister than satisfied (31%), Gordon Brown continues to be well regarded for the job he is doing as Chancellor of the Exchequer: 47% say they are satisfied compared to 36% dissatisfied. The Chancellor also has a much higher net satisfaction score among Labour voters (+57%) than does Tony Blair (+23%).

At the same time, the public is much more likely to think that the economic situation of the country will get worse over the next 12 months than will get better -- Ipsos MORI's economic optimism index now stands at -28%. This compares to -11% in February 2005; -18% in February 2004; -50% in February 2003; -21% in February 2002; and -2% in February 2001.

Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism is regarded as the key issue facing the country (34% of the public spontaneously say this) ahead of the NHS (33%), race relations/immigration (30%) and education/schools (28%).

Download the presentation slides pdf, 100KB

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,958 adults aged 18+ at 196 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 16-20 February 2006.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,143)

  %
Conservative 35
Labour 38
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 20
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 1
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Other 3
 
Lab lead (177%) +3
 
Would not vote *
Undecided 9
Refused 2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?Base: All naming a party (1,958)

  %
Conservative 33
Labour 41
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 20
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Other 1
 
Lab lead (177%) +8
 
Would not vote 12
Undecided 11
Refused 2

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?Base: 1,006 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 28 60 12 -32
Blair (Q4) 31 60 9 -29
Cameron (Q5) 31 16 53 +15
Brown (Q6) 47 36 17 +11

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Base: 1,006 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 19 34
National Health Service/Hospitals 10 33
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 17 30
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 10 28
Education/schools 6 25
Pensions/social security 3 13
Economy/economic situation 5 11
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 3 9
Pollution/environment 3 8
Taxation 2 7
Drug abuse 3 6
Housing 2 6
Poverty/inequality 2 6
Morality/individual behaviour 1 5
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution 1 3
Petrol prices/fuel 1 3
Local government/council tax * 3
Transport/public transport * 3
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages 1 2
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 2
Inflation/prices * 2
Countryside/rural life * 1
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * 1
Northern Ireland * *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * *
Privatisation * *
AIDS 0 *
Animal welfare 0 *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods 0 *
Trade unions/strikes 0 *
Other 6 16
Don't know 5 3

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?Base: 1,006 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 11
Stay the same 45
Get worse 39
Don't know 5
Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -28

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?Base: 1,958 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 58
9 6
8 7
7 4
6 3
5 6
4 2
3 2
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 10
Don't know 1
Refused 0

More insights about Public Sector