Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2007

Ipsos MORI's first Political Monitor of 2007 shows the Conservatives leading Labour by 4 points (39% vs 35%). This puts the Tory share significantly higher than it was during most of the Autumn, and represents a swing of 3.5% from Labour since the 2005 general election.

Ipsos MORI's first Political Monitor of 2007 shows the Conservatives leading Labour by 4 points (39% vs 35%). This puts the Tory share significantly higher than it was during most of the Autumn, and represents a swing of 3.5% from Labour since the 2005 general election.

The picture is somewhat different for the Tory leader however. — Read Weekly Political Commentary by Dr Roger Mortimore and Julia Clark.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,955 adults aged 18+ at 177 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 19-29 January 2007.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  • Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available upon request.

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (949)

 %
Conservative39
Labour35
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)19
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist3
Green Party1
UK Independence Party*
Other3
 
Lab lead (±%)-4
 
Would not vote1
Undecided12
Refused4

Voting — all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All naming a party (1,955)

 %
Conservative35
Labour40
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)18
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist4
Green Party2
UK Independence Party*
Other1
 
Lab lead (±%)+5
 
Would not vote10
Undecided15
Refused4

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: 967 British adults 18+

 SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowIndex
 %%%±%
Government (Q3)24697-45
Blair (Q4)25687-43
Cameron (Q5)283735-9
Campbell (Q6)223345-11

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: All party supporters

 BaseSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowIndex
 n%%%%
Government (Q3)28351418+10
Blair (Q4)28348448+4
Cameron (Q5)210582320+35
Campbell (Q6)120512722+24

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 967 British adults 18+

 Q7Q7/8
 %%
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism1737
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism1736
National Health Service/Hospitals727
Race relations/immigration/immigrants1425
Education/schools522
Pollution/environment819
Economy/economic situation/benefits514
Drug abuse411
Housing18
Pensions/social security18
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution27
Inflation/prices17
Taxation17
Morality/individual behaviour26
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry26
Local government/council tax14
Poverty/inequality14
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages*3
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament*3
Public services in general*3
Countryside/rural life*2
Petrol prices/fuel*2
Transport/public transport*2
AIDS11
Animal welfare*1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods*1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound01
Bird flu/Flu pandemic**
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis**
Privatisation **
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform**
Tsunami/South East Asia**
Northern Ireland0*
Trade unions/strikes0*
Other12
Don't know43

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 967 British adults 18+

 %
Improve8
Stay the same37
Get worse47
Don't know7
Ipsos MORI EOI-39

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,955 British adults 18+

 %
10 — absolutely certain to vote50
96
88
75
65
58
42
32
23
1 — absolutely certain not to vote11
Don't know2
Refused*

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