Ipsos MORI's first Political Monitor of 2007 shows the Conservatives leading Labour by 4 points (39% vs 35%). This puts the Tory share significantly higher than it was during most of the Autumn, and represents a swing of 3.5% from Labour since the 2005 general election.
The picture is somewhat different for the Tory leader however. — Read Weekly Political Commentary by Dr Roger Mortimore and Julia Clark.
- Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,955 adults aged 18+ at 177 sampling points across Great Britain.
- Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 19-29 January 2007.
- Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
- Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available upon request.
Voting — all absolutely certain to vote
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(If undecided or refused at Q1)
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (949)
|Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)||19|
|UK Independence Party||*|
|Lab lead (±%)||-4|
|Would not vote||1|
Voting — all
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All naming a party (1,955)
|Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)||18|
|UK Independence Party||*|
|Lab lead (±%)||+5|
|Would not vote||10|
Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: 967 British adults 18+
Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: All party supporters
Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 967 British adults 18+
|Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism||17||37|
|Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism||17||36|
|National Health Service/Hospitals||7||27|
|Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry||2||6|
|Local government/council tax||1||4|
|Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages||*||3|
|Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament||*||3|
|Public services in general||*||3|
|GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods||*||1|
|Pound/exchange rate/value of pound||0||1|
|Bird flu/Flu pandemic||*||*|
|Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis||*||*|
|Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform||*||*|
|Tsunami/South East Asia||*||*|
Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 967 British adults 18+
|Stay the same||37|
|Ipsos MORI EOI||-39|
Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,955 British adults 18+
|10 — absolutely certain to vote||50|
|1 — absolutely certain not to vote||11|