Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2009

Ipsos MORI's January 2009 Political Monitor shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party voting intention share has increased by five points to 44% since December 2008, and the Labour Party share has fallen (also by five points) to 30%.

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2009

Ipsos MORI's January 2009 Political Monitor (carried out by telephone between 16-18 January 2009 among 1,005 adults aged 18 and over) shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party voting intention share has increased by five points to 44% since December 2008, and the Labour Party share has fallen (also by five points) to 30%. Public satisfaction with Prime Minister Gordon Brown has decreased from last month as well (see below), although his satisfaction ratings remain higher than his lowest point in July 2008. Other key findings from this month's Monitor include:

  • Around half (49%) of full-time workers are concerned about the possibility of being made redundant or becoming unemployed over the next 12 months, which is up from 43% being concerned in October 2008.
  • In terms of which party is seen to have the best policies for managing the economy, the Conservatives (30%) and Labour (29%) are now virtually neck-and-neck - this compares with a 15 percentage point lead that the Conservative Party enjoyed in August of 2008.
  • Public optimism about the economy continues to increase, and is now at its highest level since October 2007 - although those who think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months still far outnumber those who think it will improve. The proportion of those who feel the economic condition of the country will improve in the next twelve months is at 20%, compared with 18% last month. Six in ten (60%) think the economy will get worse, down from 66% last month. The Economic Optimism Index (those who think it will get better minus those who think it will get worse) is now at -40, compared with -48 last month.
  • Prime Minister Gordon Brown's personal ratings have fallen since last month: three in five (59%) are now dissatisfied with the job he is doing, and a third (33%) are satisfied, giving a net score (the percentage satisfied minus the percentage dissatisfied) of -26. This compares to a `net' score of -16 last month, and -9 in November last year.
  • Overall satisfaction with the Government is about the same as last month. Just over a quarter (27% compared to 28% last month) are satisfied, and two-thirds are dissatisfied (65% compared to 64% last month).
  • The public's opinion of how David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party has also shown little change since December: satisfaction is up one point to 44%, and dissatisfaction remains at 38%.
  • Over a third (34%) of the public are satisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats, and a quarter (25%) are dissatisfied. However, the proportion of people still saying that they `don't know' has increased since December, up four points to 41%.

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Technical Details Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,005 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 16th-18th January 2009.160 Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't know" categories, or multiple answers.160 An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Voting intention figures exclude those who say they would not vote, are undecided or refuse to name a party.

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