Ipsos MORI Political Monitor July

The two key findings from this month's Political Monitor survey provide grim reading for both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition — Tony Blair's personal satisfaction ratings have fallen to the lowest levels of his premiership and, for the first time, more of the public is dissatisfied than satisfied with the performance of David Cameron.

The two key findings from this month's Political Monitor survey provide grim reading for both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition -- Tony Blair's personal satisfaction ratings have fallen to the lowest levels of his premiership and, for the first time, more of the public is dissatisfied than satisfied with the performance of David Cameron.

Tony Blair

23% of the public is satisfied with the way Tony Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister and 67% dissatisfied -- giving a "net satisfaction" rating of -44. This means that for the first time, the proportion of the public satisfied with the Prime Minister is exactly the same as expressing satisfaction with the way the government is running the country (23%) -- typically we find the Prime Minister (of any party) outscoring their government's approval rating. Also for the first time during his premiership, we find fewer than half (49%) of Labour supporters satisfied with Tony Blair's performance -- though this is still more than the 40% who say they are dissatisfied.

David Cameron

While David Cameron will be pleased that his party retains a four point voting intentions lead over Labour among the 54% of the public who say they are absolutely certain to vote in a general election, the latest data shows slightly more of the public is dissatisfied (31%) than satisfied (29%) with the way he is handling his job as Leader of the Conservative Party. These new findings are in line with a gradual increase in dissatisfaction with the leader's performance measured each month by Ipsos MORI, and to some extent reflects the pattern of approval ratings experienced by previous Conservative party leaders since 1997.

Ipsos MORI's analysis also shows that David Cameron is performing less well among women than men. In January this year his "net satisfaction" rating among men was +13 -- almost identical to his rating among women (+14). In this latest poll, his "net" rating among men has fallen to +2 (a negative swing of 5.5%) and to -8 among women (a negative swing of -11%).

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,019 adults aged 18+ at 188 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 20-24 July 2006.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,111)

  %
Conservative 36
Labour 32
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 24
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Other 1
 
Lab lead (177%) -4
 
Would not vote *
Undecided 9
Refused 2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?Base: All naming a party (2,019)

  %
Conservative 32
Labour 37
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 23
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Other 1
 
Lab lead (177%) +5
 
Would not vote 14
Undecided 12
Refused 2

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?Base: 983 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 23 68 9 -45
Blair (Q4) 23 67 10 -44
Cameron (Q5) 29 31 41 -2
Campbell (Q6) 22 28 49 -6

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Base: 983 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 21 38
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 13 37
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 20 36
National Health Service/Hospitals 13 35
Education/schools 4 20
Pollution/environment 5 10
Pensions/social security 2 10
Economy/economic situation 4 9
Poverty/inequality 2 7
Taxation 1 7
Housing 1 6
Petrol prices/fuel 1 6
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 1 6
Morality/individual behaviour 1 5
Drug abuse 1 4
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution * 3
Inflation/prices * 3
Public services in general * 3
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 2
Local government/council tax * 2
Transport/public transport * 2
Animal welfare * 1
Countryside/rural life * 1
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 1
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * 1
Bird flu/Flu pandemic * *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
Privatisation 0 *
Trade unions/strikes 0 *
Tsunami/South East Asia 0 *
AIDS 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 0
Other 2 6
Don't know 5 4

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?Base: 983 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 10
Stay the same 42
Get worse 43
Don't know 5
Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -33

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?Base: 2,019 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 54
9 5
8 6
7 4
6 3
5 7
4 2
3 3
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 2
Refused *

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