Ipsos MORI Political Monitor June 2007

Ipsos MORI's June Political Monitor shows Labour leading the Conservatives for the first time in seven months (39% vs. 36%). The Liberal Democrats' share of the vote is down to 15%, their lowest share recorded by Ipsos MORI since November 2001.

Ipsos MORI's June Political Monitor shows Labour leading the Conservatives for the first time in seven months (39% vs. 36%). The Liberal Democrats' share of the vote is down to 15%, their lowest share recorded by Ipsos MORI since November 2001. Tony Blair leaves office this week five points ahead of David Cameron in terms of public satisfaction with the way he is doing his job (33% satisfied vs. 28% satisfied). The Political Monitor also contains good news for Mr Blair's successor; when asked who out of Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Sir Menzies Campbell would make the most capable Prime Minister, four in ten (40%) select Gordon Brown, compared to 22% who name David Cameron and just five percent who choose Sir Menzies Campbell.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,969 adults aged 18+ at 199 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 14-20 June 2007.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  • Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available upon request.
  • Download the data tabulations pdf, 599KB

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,102)

160 %
Conservative 36
Labour 39
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 15
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 1
Other 3
160
Lab lead (177%) +3
160
Would not vote 2
Undecided 6
Refused 2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All naming a party (1,969)

160 %
Conservative 32
Labour 42
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 15
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 1
Other 3
160
Lab lead (177%) +10
160
Would not vote 12
Undecided 10
Refused 2

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: 984 British adults 18+

160 Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
160 % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 30 61 9 -31
Blair (Q4) 33 60 7 -27
Cameron (Q5) 28 33 39 -5
Campbell (Q6) 21 33 46 -12

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: All party supporters

160 Base Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
160 n % % % %
Government (Q3) 314 59 35 6 24
Blair (Q4) 314 58 35 7 23
Cameron (Q5) 237 50 22 27 28
Campbell (Q6) 117 49 33 18 16

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 984 British adults 18+

160 Q7 Q7/8
160 % %
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 24 40
National Health Service/Hospitals 11 37
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 13 35
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 14 27
Education/schools 5 22
Pollution/environment 4 13
Economy/economic situation/benefits 4 10
Housing 3 10
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 8
Pensions/social security 1 8
Morality/individual behaviour 3 7
Poverty/inequality 2 6
Drug abuse 1 6
Taxation 1 6
Common Market/EU/
Europe/EURO/Constitution 2 4
Local government/council tax 1 3
Inflation/prices * 3
Public services in general * 3
Transport/public transport * 3
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
Countryside/rural life 0 2
Animal welfare 1 1
AIDS * 1
Petrol prices/fuel * 1
Privatisation * 1
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * 1
Bird flu/Flu pandemic 0 1
Trade unions/strikes * *
Tsunami/South East Asia * *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods 0 *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 0
Other 2 5
Don't know 4 3

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 984 British adults 18+

160 %
Improve 14
Stay the same 45
Get worse 34
Don't know 8
Ipsos MORI EOI -20

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,969 British adults 18+

160 %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 56
9 5
8 6
7 5
6 3
5 7
4 1
3 2
2 1
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 12
Don't know 3
Refused *

Q11 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister -- the Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, the Leader of the Conservative Party David Cameron or the Leader of the Liberal Democrats Sir Menzies Campbell? Base: 984 British adults 18+

160 %
Gordon Brown 40
David Cameron 22
Sir Menzies Campbell 5
None 14
Don't Know 19

Q12 Which party did you vote for at the General Election on May 5th 2005? If you are not sure, or did not vote, please say so. Base: 1,969 British adults 18+

160 %
Conservative 20
Labour 35
Lib Dems 11
Scottish/Welsh nationalist 2
UKIP *
Green 1
Other 1
Did not vote 22
Too young 3
Can't remember 3
Refused 2

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