Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2006

Questions on voting intention, satisfaction with party leaders, the key issues facing Britain, economic optimism, party identification, past voting behaviour, immigration, drink driving and personal finance.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,928 adults aged 18+ at 195 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 16-21 March 2006.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,155)

  %
Conservative 34
Labour 39
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 19
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 1
Other 1
 
Lab lead (177%) +5
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?Base: All naming a party (1,494)

  %
Conservative 31
Labour 42
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 19
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 1
Other 1
 
Lab lead (177%) +11
 
Would not vote 11
Undecided 8
Refused 1

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?Base: 1,026 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 27 65 7 -38
Blair (Q4) 31 62 7 -31
Cameron (Q5) 32 19 50 +13
Campbell (Q6) 22 17 62 +5

Q7 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister -- Gordon Brown, David Cameron or Menzies Campbell?

  %
Gordon Brown 35
David Cameron 26
Menzies Campbell 9
Don't know 30

Q8 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Q9 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Base: 1,026 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
National Health Service/Hospitals 13 37
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 18 30
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 12 29
Education/schools 7 28
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 9 26
Pensions/social security 3 13
Economy/economic situation 5 9
Pollution/environment 3 9
Poverty/inequality 3 8
Taxation 2 8
Housing 2 6
Morality/individual behaviour 1 6
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 5
Drug abuse 1 5
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution 1 3
Local government/council tax * 3
Public services in general * 3
Transport/public transport * 3
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages 1 2
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 2
Petrol prices/fuel 1 2
Countryside/rural life * 2
Inflation/prices * 2
Bird flu/Flu pandemic 1 1
AIDS * *
Animal welfare * *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * *
Northern Ireland * *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * *
Privatisation 0 *
Trade unions/strikes 0 *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 0
Tsunami/South East Asia 0 0
Other 6 14
Don't know 5 4

Q10 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?Base: 1,026 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 13
Stay the same 44
Get worse 39
Don't know 4
Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -26

Q11 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?Base: 1,928 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 60
9 5
8 7
7 4
6 3
5 6
4 1
3 2
2 1
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 9
Don't know 2
Refused 0

Q12 Which one of these definitions, if any, comes closest to your own political views?Base: 1,026 British adults 18+

  June 2001* August 2003* Jan 2005 Apr 2005 Mar 2006
  % % % % %
New Labour 12 15 16 12 18
Old Labour 29 17 19 23 16
Liberal 11 10 6 7 12
One Nation Tory 9 12 11 9 11
Thatcherite Tory 12 15 12 16 11
Social Democrat 7 7 6 6 6
Nationalist 1 Total to 24 3 3 4
Other 5 2 2 1
None of these 6 15 9 13
Don't know 8 9 11 8

Q13 Which party did you vote for at the General Election on May 5th 2005? If you are not sure or did not vote, please say so.Base: 1,026 British adults 18+

  %
Conservative 21
Labour 32
Liberal Democrat 14
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
UKIP 1
Green 2
Other 1
Did not vote 20
Too young 2
Can't remember 1
Refused 3

Q14 Which one of these statements comes closest to your views on laws about immigration in Britain?Base: 1,897 British adults 18+

  Feb 2003 Apr 2005 March 2006
  % % %
Laws on immigration should be abolished so anyone can come and live in Britain 2 2 2
Laws on immigration should be relaxed 4 8 7
Laws on immigration should remain as they are 12 19 16
Laws on immigration should be much tougher 67 58 57
Immigration should be stopped all together 13 11 10
Don't know 3 2 8

Q15 Which one of these statements best describes your behaviour regarding drinking alcohol and driving?Base: 1,928 British adults 18+

  July 2001 March 2006
  % %
I would never drive after drinking alcohol in any circumstances 46 51
I would drive after drinking alcohol, but only in an emergency 6 5
I would drive after drinking alcohol, but only if I have calculated my alcohol units and know I am under the legal limit 37 14
I would drive after drinking alcohol if I thought I was only slightly over the legal limit 1 2
I would drive after drinking alcohol regardless of how much I have drunk 0 1
I never drink alcohol at all 10 9
I do not drive N/A 16
Don't know N/A 2

Q16 Thinking about your personal financial situation, please indicate the extent you agree or disagree with the following statement: "I feel I am in control of my finances"Base: 1,897 British adults 18+

  %
Strongly agree 41
Tend to agree 36
Neither agree nor disagree 9
Tend to disagree 8
Strongly disagree 3
Don't know 4

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