Ipsos MORI Political Monitor November

Ipsos MORI's November Political Monitor latest voting intentions (based on all those who say they are certain to vote) gives the Conservatives 35%, Labour 33% and the Liberal Democrats 20%, a swing of 2.5% from Labour to Conservatives since General Election.

Ipsos MORI's November Political Monitor latest voting intentions (based on all those who say they are certain to vote) gives the Conservatives 35%, Labour 33% and the Liberal Democrats 20%, a swing of 2.5% from Labour to Conservatives since General Election.

Just one in four, 25%, of the electorate now say they are "satisfied" with the performance of the Conservative Leader, David Cameron. His sliding satisfaction levels are comparable to his predecessors, William Hague, Ian Duncan Smith and Michael Howard.

Defence / foreign affairs / Iraq and Afghanistan top the "most important issues facing Britain" question, with 40% of the public spontaneously saying that this is a key national problem, closely followed by race relations / immigration at 38%, and in third crime and law & order / vandalism at 32%. Health care / NHS is of major concern to 31%, but is seen as far more important to women than to men (37% vs 25%).

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index now stands at -33, with more people thinking that Britain's economic performance will get worse (43%) than get better (10%) over the next 12 months.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,950 adults aged 18+ at 179 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 9-14 November 2006.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,115)

  %
Conservative 35
Labour 33
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 20
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 1
Other 5
 
Lab lead (+%) -2
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?Base: All naming a party (1,950)

  %
Conservative 31
Labour 36
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 20
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 4
UK Independence Party 2
Other 4
 
Lab lead (+%) +5
 
Would not vote 12
Undecided 11
Refused 1

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?Base: 925 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 22 69 8 -47
Blair (Q4) 27 65 8 -38
Cameron (Q5) 25 31 44 -6
Campbell (Q6) 23 26 51 -3

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?Base: All party supporters

    Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  Base % % % %
Government (Q3) 260 51 44 6 +7
Blair (Q4) 260 59 35 6 +24
Cameron (Q5) 212 45 21 34 +24
Campbell (Q6) 122 47 21 32 +26

Q6a You said you were dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party. Why did you say that?Base: All dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party (282)

  %
Needs to clarify his policies 13
Do not like his policies 9
He tries to please everybody 7
Too much talk, not enough action / he hasn't done anything 7
No attention to the real issues that people were concerned about / out of touch 6
Weak leader 6
Inexperienced / does not know what he is doing 6
Clone of Tony Blair 6
Don't like him / he does not appeal to me 6
Untrustworthy / Dishonest 5
Prefer the other parties 5
Will not fulfil promises 3
He's an idiot / joke 3
Lacks new idea 2
Image conscious / PR man 2
Not an effective opposition 2
Don't know much about him 2
Too young 2
Wet 1
Has Tory values 1
Trying to be hip / trendy 1
Wishy washy 1
Too much political correctness 1
Lacks personality 1
Conservative in-fighting 1
Smarmy 1
He's only in politics for his own glory 1
Cannot see him running the country / being a world leader 1
Politicians are all the same 1
Is just chasing votes *
Other 4
No answer 9
Don't know 10

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Base: 925 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Defence / foreign affairs / international terrorism 22 40
Race relations / immigration / immigrants 22 38
Crime / law & order / violence / vandalism 12 32
National Health Service / Hospitals 10 31
Education / schools 4 18
Pollution / environment 4 11
Economy / economic situation 3 9
Taxation 2 8
Pensions / social security 1 7
Housing 2 6
Morality / individual behaviour 2 6
Unemployment / factory closure / lack of industry 2 6
Drug abuse 1 6
Poverty / inequality 1 5
Inflation / prices 1 4
Common Market / EU / Europe / EURO / Constitution 1 3
Local government / council tax 1 3
Public services in general * 3
Low pay / minimum wage / fair wages 1 2
Petrol prices / fuel 1 2
Transport / public transport * 2
Countryside / rural life 1 1
AIDS * 1
Animal welfare * 1
Nuclear weapons / nuclear war / disarmament * 1
Privatisation * 1
Tsunami / South East Asia * 1
Foot and mouth outbreak / farming crisis * *
Northern Ireland * *
Pound / exchange rate / value of pound * *
Scottish / Welsh Assembly / Devolution Constitutional reform * *
Bird flu / Flu pandemic 0 *
GM / GM (Genetically Modified) foods 0 *
Trade unions / strikes 0 *
Other 1 3
Don't know 3 3

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?Base: 925 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 10
Stay the same 41
Get worse 43
Don't know 6
Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -33

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?Base: 1,950 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 56
9 6
8 6
7 4
6 3
5 7
4 2
3 2
2 1
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 0
Refused 2

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