Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2006

Ipsos MORI's October Political Monitor shows that Labour retains a small voting intentions lead over the Conservatives among the 56% of the electorate who say they are absolutely certain to vote. Tony Blair has also seen a rise in the proportion of the public satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister, up from 26% in early September to 32% now, though a majority of the public remain dissatisfied (60%) with him. The proportion of the public satisfied with David Cameron as Conservative party leader stands at 31%, exactly the same as first measured by Ipsos MORI in January of this year. However the proportion dissatisfied with Cameron has almost doubled over this time, from 17% to 32%. More than a third (37%) say they don't know if they are satisfied or dissatisfied with Cameron.

Ipsos MORI's October Political Monitor shows that Labour retains a small voting intentions lead over the Conservatives among the 56% of the electorate who say they are absolutely certain to vote. Tony Blair has also seen a rise in the proportion of the public satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister, up from 26% in early September to 32% now, though a majority of the public remain dissatisfied (60%) with him. The proportion of the public satisfied with David Cameron as Conservative party leader stands at 31%, exactly the same as first measured by Ipsos MORI in January of this year. However the proportion dissatisfied with Cameron has almost doubled over this time, from 17% to 32%. More than a third (37%) say they don't know if they are satisfied or dissatisfied with Cameron.

Race relations / immigration is seen by the British public as the single most important issue facing the country, as it has been for the past three months.

Ipsos MORI's Economic Optimism Index has also improved since the summer. It now stands at -23, up from -33 measured in July this year.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,014 adults aged 18+ at 188 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 12-16 October 2006.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,113)

  %
Conservative 35
Labour 37
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 18
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Other 2
 
Lab lead (+%) +2
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 8
Refused 2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?Base: All naming a party (2,014)

  %
Conservative 32
Labour 41
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 18
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 1
Other 2
 
Lab lead (+%) +9
 
Would not vote 12
Undecided 12
Refused 2

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?Base: 982 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 27 64 9 -37
Blair (Q4) 32 60 8 -28
Cameron (Q5) 31 32 37 -1
Campbell (Q6) 22 31 46 -9

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?Base: All party supporters

    Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  Base % % % %
Government (Q3) 301 49 41 10 +8
Blair (Q4) 301 60 34 6 +26
Cameron (Q5) 230 58 21 21 +37
Campbell (Q6) 122 46 30 24 +16

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Base: 982 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 25 40
National Health Service/Hospitals 13 38
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 20 37
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 10 30
Education/schools 4 20
Economy/economic situation 3 8
Pollution/environment 3 8
Pensions/social security 1 7
Taxation 1 7
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 6
Drug abuse 2 5
Housing 1 5
Morality/individual behaviour 1 5
Poverty/inequality 1 5
Common Market/EU/ Europe/EURO/Constitution 1 3
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 3
Transport/public transport * 3
Countryside/rural life 1 2
Inflation/prices 1 2
Local government/council tax * 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
Public services in general * 2
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods 1 1
Animal welfare * 1
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis * 1
Petrol prices/fuel * 1
Privatisation * 1
AIDS * *
Bird flu/Flu pandemic * *
Northern Ireland * *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * *
Tsunami/South East Asia 0 *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform 0 0
Trade unions/strikes 0 0
Other 3 9
Don't know 5 4

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?Base: 982 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 12
Stay the same 47
Get worse 35
Don't know 6
Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -23

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?Base: 2,014 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 56
9 5
8 8
7 4
6 3
5 6
4 1
3 3
2 1
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 2
Refused *

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