Ipsos MORI Political Monitor September 2007

The September Political Monitor, mostly conducted during Labour's conference in Bournemouth, includes the public's detailed assessment of the best party on each of the key issues facing the country.

The September Political Monitor, mostly conducted during Labour's conference in Bournemouth, includes the public's detailed assessment of the best party on each of the key issues facing the country, as well as updates to the trend questions carried every month. Crime is the issue that most of the public (56%) say will be very important to their vote, and the Conservatives have a clear lead as best party on this issue despite trailing Labour in voting intentions. Meanwhile, David Cameron's satisfaction ratings days before his crucial conference speech dipped to their worst-ever level.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,964 adults aged 18+ at 187 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Interviews were conducted face-to-face on 20-26 September 2007.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  • Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available on request.
  • Download the data tabulations pdf, 604KB

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,037)

  %
Conservative 31
Labour 44
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 15
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Other 4
 
Lab lead (177%) +13
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 8
Refused 3

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All naming a party (1,964)

  %
Conservative 28
Labour 48
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 14
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Other 4
 
Lab lead (177%) +20
 
Would not vote 15
Undecided 11
Refused 2

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: 988 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 35 52 13 -17
Brown (Q4) 44 26 30 +18
Cameron (Q5) 23 45 32 -22
Campbell (Q6) 24 35 42 -11

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: All party supporters

  Base Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  n % % % %
Government (Q3) 353 56 33 11 +23
Brown (Q4) 353 64 10 25 +54
Cameron (Q5) 191 39 45 16 -6
Campbell (Q6) 94 50 29 20 +21

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 988 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 26 43
Crime/law & order/violence/ vandalism/anti-social (yob) behaviour 18 41
National Health Service/Hospitals/ Health care 10 36
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 10 22
Education/schools 4 17
Housing 3 11
Economy/economic situation 4 10
Taxation 2 8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 8
Pollution/environment 3 7
Morality/individual behaviour 2 7
Drug abuse 1 7
Pensions/social security/benefits 1 6
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO 1 4
Inflation/prices 1 4
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages 1 4
Poverty/inequality 1 3
Public services in general * 3
Local government/council tax * 2
Transport/public transport * 2
Countryside/rural life 1 1
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 1
AIDS * 1
Animal welfare * 1
Bird flu/Flu pandemic * 1
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis * 1
Privatisation * 1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * *
Petrol prices/fuel * *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform 0 *
Tsunami/South East Asia 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 0
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound 0 0
Trade unions/strikes 0 0
Other 3 6
Don't know 6 5

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 988 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 12
Stay the same 35
Get worse 45
Don't know 7
Ipsos MORI EOI -33

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,964 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 52
9 4
8 6
7 4
6 3
5 8
4 2
3 2
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 14
Don't know 3
Refused *

Q11 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Base: 988 British adults 18+

  September 2006 September 2007 Change
  % % 177%
Crime and anti-social behaviour 57 56 -1
Health care 54 47 -7
Asylum and immigration 52 46 -6
Education 45 39 -6
Pensions 36 27 -9
Iraq 32 26 -6
Managing the economy 28 24 -4
Taxation 32 23 -9
Housing 22 22 0
Protecting the natural environment 27 20 -7
Unemployment 21 20 -1
Defence 20 16 -4
Public transport 17 14 -3
Europe 13 11 -2
Animal welfare 7 7 0
Constitution / Devolution 4 6 +2
Don't know 6 6 0

Q12-27 I am going to read out a list of issues facing Britain today and for each one, I would like you to tell me whether you think that the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party has the best policy on each? Base: All who say each issue is very important (in brackets)

  Con Lab Lib Dem Other None Don't know Lab Lead
  % % % % % % 177%
Animal welfare (71) 1 14 7 12 11 56 +13
Asylum and immigration (454) 27 14 6 6 22 26 -13
Constitution/Devolution (60) 32 17 9 7 12 22 -15
Defence (149) 33 19 7 3 15 23 -14
Education (366) 19 32 8 4 8 29 +13
Europe (113) 33 9 9 12 10 27 -24
Healthcare (462) 20 31 7 2 14 26 +11
Housing (220) 8 30 6 4 18 35 +22
Iraq (259) 15 12 24 5 20 23 -3
Crime & anti-social behaviour (569) 27 19 5 1 18 30 -8
Managing the economy (223) 17 46 5 1 10 20 +29
Pensions (276) 16 23 9 2 22 29 +7
Protecting the natural environment (196) 11 8 22 21 13 26 -3
Public transport (131) 9 23 11 7 15 34 +14
Taxation (222) 25 16 10 3 13 34 -9
Unemployment (204) 20 26 7 3 14 30 +6

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