MORI Political Monitor

MORI's latest Political Monitor results show that Labour (35%) retain a small lead over the Conservatives (34%) in terms of voting intentions at an immediate General Election, among those who say they are "absolutely certain to vote". In the run-up to the local, Mayoral and European elections on June 10th, the main issues seen to be facing Britain are Defence/foreign affairs (47%), NHS (34%) and race relations/immigration (30%). Europe is mentioned by 17% of the public (in 7th place). In contrast, during the last European Parliament elections in June 1999, Europe was then seen by the public as the most important issue facing the country (mentioned by 37% of the public), followed by NHS (35%) and education (29%).

MORI's latest Political Monitor results show that Labour (35%) retain a small lead over the Conservatives (34%) in terms of voting intentions at an immediate General Election, among those who say they are "absolutely certain to vote". In the run-up to the local, Mayoral and European elections on June 10th, the main issues seen to be facing Britain are Defence/foreign affairs (47%), NHS (34%) and race relations/immigration (30%). Europe is mentioned by 17% of the public (in 7th place). In contrast, during the last European Parliament elections in June 1999, Europe was then seen by the public as the most important issue facing the country (mentioned by 37% of the public), followed by NHS (35%) and education (29%).

Satisfaction with the performance of Tony Blair as Prime Minister now stands at 29% (with 61% dissatisfied). Again, this is much different to his ratings in June 1999 when 57% of the public said they were satisfied with the job he was doing, and 35% dissatisfied. Michael Howard, leader of the Conservative Party since November 2003, continues to divide those of the public who give an opinion on the job he his doing. Currently, 30% say they satisfied with him and 31% dissatisfied (the remainder say they don't know).

MORI's Economic Optimism Index now stands at -25, down from -18 in April

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,863 adults aged 18+ at 192 sampling points across Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 27 May-1 June 2004.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: 1,863 British adults 18+

  %
Conservative 30
Labour 37
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 20
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 3
Other 3
 
Lab lead (177%) +7
 
Would not vote 12
Undecided 12
Refused 2

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,068)

  %
Conservative 34
Labour 35
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 18
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 4
Other 4
 
Lab lead (177%) +1
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 9
Refused 3
The headline figures are based on all respondents absolutely certain to vote.

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?

Base: 973 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government 26 62 11 -36
Blair 29 61 10 -32
Howard 30 31 39 -1
Kennedy 38 24 38 +14

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 973 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 30 47
National Health Service/Hospitals 10 34
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 16 30
Education/schools 4 25
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 6 21
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 7 17
Economy/economic situation 4 9
Pensions/social security 1 9
Taxation 2 8
Housing 1 8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 7
Transport/public transport * 7
Drug abuse 1 6
Poverty/inequality 1 5
Morality/individual behaviour 1 4
Pollution/environment 1 4
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 3
Public services in general 1 3
Inflation/prices * 3
Local government/council tax * 3
Petrol prices/fuel * 3
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
Countryside/rural life * 1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * 1
Northern Ireland * *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * *
AIDS 0 *
Animal welfare 0 *
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease 0 *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
Privatisation 0 *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform 0 *
Trade unions/strikes 0 *
 
Other 5 13
Don't know 5 4

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 973 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 14
Stay the same 41
Get worse 39
Don't know 6
 
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -25

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: 1,863 British adults 18+

  %
10 - absolutely certain to vote 57
9 5
8 7
7 5
6 3
5 6
4 1
3 2
2 2
1 - absolutely certain not to vote 9
Don't know 2
Refused *

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