MORI Political Monitor

MORI's latest Political Monitor, conducted between 24 and 29 June 2004, shows that the public remain dissatisfied with the performance of Tony Blair as Prime Minister, but this is not translating into support for either Michael Howard or the Conservative Party. While, by a margin of around two to one, the public are dissatisfied with the way Tony Blair is doing his job (61% to 30%), Labour retain a lead of 3 points over the Conservatives. At the same time, there has been a sharp rise in dissatisfaction with Michael Howard as leader of the Opposition. In November 2003, MORI's first poll undertaken after the Conservative leadership election showed that 26% of the public were satisfied with Michael Howard and 17% dissatisfied — the majority giving "don't know" (57%). The latest survey shows that still 26% of people say they are satisfied with Michael Howard, but 38% are dissatisfied as the number of people not expressing an opinion decreases.

MORI's latest Political Monitor, conducted between 24 and 29 June 2004, shows that the public remain dissatisfied with the performance of Tony Blair as Prime Minister, but this is not translating into support for either Michael Howard or the Conservative Party. While, by a margin of around two to one, the public are dissatisfied with the way Tony Blair is doing his job (61% to 30%), Labour retain a lead of 3 points over the Conservatives. At the same time, there has been a sharp rise in dissatisfaction with Michael Howard as leader of the Opposition. In November 2003, MORI's first poll undertaken after the Conservative leadership election showed that 26% of the public were satisfied with Michael Howard and 17% dissatisfied -- the majority giving "don't know" (57%). The latest survey shows that still 26% of people say they are satisfied with Michael Howard, but 38% are dissatisfied as the number of people not expressing an opinion decreases.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,107 adults aged 18+ at 203 sampling points across Great Britain. Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 24-29 June 2004.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,127)

  %
Conservative 31
Labour 34
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 19
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 4
UK Independence Party 6
Other 2
 
Lab lead (177%) +3
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 5
Refused 2
The headline figure is based on all respondents who say they are certain to vote (52%). Among all those naming a party, the share of vote is as follows: Conservative (28%), Labour (37%), Liberal Democrats (20%), Scottish/Welsh Nationalist (3%), Green Party (4%), UK Independence Party (6%) and Other (3%).

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?

Base: Base: 1,102 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government 27 62 11 -35
Blair 30 61 9 -31
Howard 26 38 36 -12
Kennedy 36 28 36 +8

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 1,102 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
National Health Service/Hospitals 15 44
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 19 35
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 14 28
Education/schools 5 28
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 7 20
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 11 16
Pensions/social security 2 10
Economy/economic situation 3 7
Housing 1 7
Transport/public transport 1 7
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 3 6
Drug abuse 1 5
Taxation 1 5
Morality/individual behaviour 2 4
Poverty/inequality 1 4
Pollution/environment 1 3
Public services in general 1 3
Petrol prices/fuel * 3
Inflation/prices * 2
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 1
Countryside/rural life * 1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * 1
Local government/council tax * 1
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages 0 1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound 0 1
AIDS * *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * *
Trade unions/strikes * *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
Animal welfare 0 0
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 0
Privatisation 0 0
 
Other 4 14
Don't know 6 5

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 1,102 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 13
Stay the same 46
Get worse 35
Don't know 7
 
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -22

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: 2,107 British adults 18+

  %
10 - absolutely certain to vote 52
9 6
8 8
7 5
6 2
5 7
4 2
3 2
2 2
1 - absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 2
Refused *

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