MORI Political Monitor

MORI's latest MORI Political Monitor survey, conducted between 22-27 July 2004 for the Independent on Sunday, shows that the Liberal Democrats have seen an increase in support over the past month among those who say they are certain to vote in an immediate General Election. The latest voting intention figures, with fieldwork carried out after the Liberal Democrat's success at the Leicester South by-election, put the Liberal Democrats on 24% (up 5 points), Labour on 32% (down 2 points) and the Conservatives on 31% (no change).

MORI's latest MORI Political Monitor survey, conducted between 22-27 July 2004 for the Independent on Sunday, shows that the Liberal Democrats have seen an increase in support over the past month among those who say they are certain to vote in an immediate General Election. The latest voting intention figures, with fieldwork carried out after the Liberal Democrat's success at the Leicester South by-election, put the Liberal Democrats on 24% (up 5 points), Labour on 32% (down 2 points) and the Conservatives on 31% (no change).

The survey also shows a sharp increase in dissatisfaction with the way Michael Howard is doing his job as Leader of the Conservative Party. Now, 42% of the public say they are dissatisfied with his performance (up 29 points since November 2003) compared with 26% who say they are satisfied (no change). The survey also finds that, for the first time, fewer than half of those intending to vote Conservative are satisfied with the Tory leader's performance -- 48%, compared with 59% in June.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,988 adults aged 18+ at 202 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 22 - 27 July 2004.
  • Data weighted to the national population profile
  • An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,081)

  %
Conservative 31
Labour 32
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 24
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 5
Other 2
 
Lab lead (+%) 1
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 1

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?

Base: 1,019 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government 27 64 9 -37
Blair 30 63 7 -33
Howard 26 42 32 -16
Kennedy 44 26 30 +18

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 1,019 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
National Health Service/Hospitals 12 40
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 18 34
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 19 31
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 11 28
Education/schools 6 27
Pensions/social security 2 12
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 6 11
Economy/economic situation 3 10
Taxation 1 9
Transport/public transport 1 8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 7
Housing 1 7
Poverty/inequality 1 5
Public services in general 1 5
Drug abuse 1 4
Morality/individual behaviour 1 4
Local government/council tax 1 3
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 2
Pollution/environment 1 2
Inflation/prices * 2
Petrol prices/fuel * 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages 0 2
Countryside/rural life * 1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * 1
Privatisation * 1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods 0 1
AIDS * *
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease * *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * *
Animal welfare 0 *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
Trade unions/strikes 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 0
 
Other 5 13
Don't know 5 4

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 1,019 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 17
Stay the same 44
Get worse 33
Don't know 6
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -16

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: 1,988 British adults 18+

  %
10 - absolutely certain to vote 52
9 6
8 7
7 4
6 3
5 7
4 2
3 3
2 2
1 - absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 2
Refused *

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