MORI Political Monitor December

MORI's December Political Monitor gives the Liberal Democrats their highest share of the vote all year among those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in an immediate General Election, as measured by MORI's monthly survey. Their vote share, on 26%, is up by 3 points from November, and up eight points from the year's low back in May. Labour remain unchanged, on 35%, and the Conservatives are down 1 point, on 30%, since our November survey. If these figures were replicated at a General Election, and assuming a national uniform swing, we would expect a Labour majority of over 100 seats, with the Liberal Democrats still in third place but with as many as 75 MPs in total.

MORI's December Political Monitor gives the Liberal Democrats their highest share of the vote all year among those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in an immediate General Election, as measured by MORI's monthly survey. Their vote share, on 26%, is up by 3 points from November, and up eight points from the year's low back in May. Labour remain unchanged, on 35%, and the Conservatives are down 1 point, on 30%, since our November survey. If these figures were replicated at a General Election, and assuming a national uniform swing, we would expect a Labour majority of over 100 seats, with the Liberal Democrats still in third place but with as many as 75 MPs in total.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,003 adults aged 18+ at 192 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 2-6 December 2004.
  • Data weighted to the national population profile
  • An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,092)

  %
Conservative 30
Labour 35
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 26
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 3
Other 1
 
Lab lead (+%) +5
 
Would not vote *
Undecided 7
Refused 2

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?

Base: 1,045 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 31 59 10 -28
Blair (Q4) 33 58 9 -25
Howard (Q5) 22 43 35 -21
Kennedy (Q6) 41 27 32 +14

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 1,045 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 24 40
National Health Service/Hospitals 11 33
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 11 30
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 14 25
Education/schools 5 25
Pensions/social security 3 13
Economy/economic situation 4 10
Taxation 2 9
Poverty/inequality 2 7
Transport/public transport 1 7
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 2 6
Morality/individual behaviour 2 6
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 6
Housing 1 6
Drug abuse 1 5
Pollution/environment 1 4
Public services in general 1 4
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 2
Inflation/prices * 2
Local government/council tax * 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
Petrol prices/fuel * 2
Animal welfare * 1
Countryside/rural life * 1
Privatisation * 1
AIDS * *
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease 0 *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound 0 *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform 0 *
Trade unions/strikes 0 *
 
Other 5 16
Don't know 7 5

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 1,045 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 13
Stay the same 47
Get worse 35
Don't know 5
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -22

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: 2,003 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 52
9 6
8 8
7 5
6 3
5 7
4 2
3 3
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 1
Refused 0

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