MORI Political Monitor, December 2003

Among those who say they are certain to vote at the next General Election, Labour's share of the vote has risen four points, from 36% in November to 40% in December. The Conservatives now on 31% are down four points and the Liberal Democrats remain unchanged on 22%.

Among those who say they are certain to vote at the next General Election, Labour's share of the vote has risen four points, from 36% in November to 40% in December. The Conservatives now on 31% are down four points and the Liberal Democrats remain unchanged on 22%.

MORI's latest research also shows the satisfaction levels with the Government and party leaders, as well as the issues which are most concerning the public and economic optimism.

Fieldwork was conducted 11-17 December, though most interviews were carried out after the capture of Saddam Hussein last Sunday.

Topline Results

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,913 adults aged 18+ at 197 sampling points across Great Britain. Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 11-17 December 2003. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 1,913 British adults 18+

  %
Conservative 28
Labour 43
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 1
UK Independence Party 1
Other 2
 
Lab lead (177%) +15
 
Would not vote 13
Undecided 11
Refused 1

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All absolutely certain to vote (978)

  %
Conservative 31
Labour 40
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 1
UK Independence Party 1
Other 2
 
Lab lead (177%) +9
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 2

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Duncan Smith / Mr Kennedy are doing their job? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government 29 60 11 -31
Blair 36 55 9 -19
Howard 22 21 57 +1
Kennedy 41 20 39 +21

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
National Health Service/Hospitals 13 41
Education/schools 8 33
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 15 29
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 12 26
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 8 22
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 5 12
Economy/economic situation 5 12
Pensions/social security 3 11
Taxation 3 10
Transport/public transport 1 8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 7
Poverty/inequality 2 6
Drug abuse 1 5
Housing 1 5
Local government/council tax 1 4
Morality/individual behaviour 1 4
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 4
Pollution/environment 1 4
Inflation/prices * 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages 0 2
AIDS * 1
Countryside/rural life * 1
Petrol prices/fuel * 1
Privatisation * 1
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform 0 1
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease * *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis * *
Animal welfare 0 *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound 0 *
Trade unions/strikes 0 *
 
Other 8 17
Don't know 7 6

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 16
Stay the same 42
Get worse 36
Don't know 6
 
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -20

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,913 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 51
9 6
8 8
7 5
6 3
5 7
4 2
3 2
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 2
Refused *

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