MORI Political Monitor, February 2005

February's Political Monitor, conducted for the Financial Times, shows the highest level of voting intentions for the Conservative Party recorded by MORI for 18 months.

February's Political Monitor, conducted for the Financial Times, shows the highest level of voting intentions for the Conservative Party recorded by MORI for 18 months. Currently, 37% of those absolutelt certain to vote in a General Election say they would vote Conservative (up five points from January). Yet the Conservatives' gain has not come from Labour, as 39% say they would vote Labour (up one point), but instead from a fall in share for the Liberal Democrats -- down four points to 18%.

Labour's and the Conservatives' high profile pledges on immigration and asylum over the past couple of weeks may partly explain the surge in concern about race/immigration/asylum detected in this poll. Two in five people (40%) now say that race/immigration/asylum is one of the most important issues facing Britain. More people mention this than any other issues, and concern has risen by 14 percentage points since January.

Read Bob Worcester's commentary in the Financial Times Swings finally looking up for Conservatives (must subscribe to the FT.com)

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,948 adults aged 18+ at 195 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 17-21 February 2005.
  • Data weighted to the national population profile
  • An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,068)

 %
Conservative37
Labour39
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)18
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist2
Green Party2
UK Independence Party1
Other1
 
Lab lead (177%)+2
 
Would not vote1
Undecided8
Refused2

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job? Base: 1,065 British adults 18+

 SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowIndex
 %%%177%
Government (Q3)315910-28
Blair (Q4)35578-22
Howard (Q5)254530-20
Kennedy (Q6)372934+8

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 1,065 British adults 18+

 Q7Q7/8
 %%
Race relations/immigration/immigrants2340
National Health Service/Hospitals1338
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism1029
Education/schools526
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism1325
Pensions/social security314
Economy/economic situation410
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution48
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry28
Poverty/inequality27
Taxation27
Housing17
Morality/individual behaviour26
Pollution/environment26
Drug abuse15
Transport/public transport*4
Public services in general13
Local government/council tax*3
Inflation/prices*2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages*2
Animal welfare*1
Countryside/rural life*1
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament*1
Petrol prices/fuel*1
Privatisation01
AIDS**
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound**
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform**
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease0*
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis0*
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods0*
Northern Ireland0*
Trade unions/strikes0*
Tsunami/South East Asia0*
 
Other412
Don't know65

* Please note the re-wording of 'Common Market / EU / Europe / EURO / Constitution' and the addition of 'Tsunami/ South East Asia'

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,065 British adults 18+

 %
Improve17
Stay the same50
Get worse28
Don't know5
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]-11

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,948 British adults 18+

 %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote53
96
88
74
63
57
42
33
23
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote9
Don't know2
Refused0

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