MORI Political Monitor January 2005

MORI's first election special Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for The Observer in January shows a six-point lead for the Labour Party over the Tories (38% to 32%) with the Liberal Democrats on 22% (down from 26% in December).

MORI's first election special Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for The Observer in January shows a six-point lead for the Labour Party over the Tories (38% to 32%) with the Liberal Democrats on 22% (down from 26% in December). Tony Blair is seen as the most capable Prime Minister by a margin of two to one over both his counterparts (39% to 17% each). These results project -- on a uniform swing -- to a Labour majority of between 120 and 130. The survey reveals further evidence of the popularity of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown. In a head to head with the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown is seen as a more capable Prime Minister (by 39% to 35%). Exactly half the public describe Gordon Brown as trustworthy, v 32% for Blair and 28% for Howard.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,956 adults aged 18+ at 195 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 20-24 January 2005.
  • Data weighted to the national population profile
  • An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,051)

 %
Conservative32
Labour38
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist3
Green Party2
UK Independence Party2
Other2
 
Lab lead (177%)+6
 
Would not vote*
Undecided6
Refused1

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

 SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowIndex
 %%%177%
Government (Q3)325810-26
Blair (Q4)335710-24
Howard (Q5)224830-26
Kennedy (Q6)392832+11

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

 Q7Q7/8
 %%
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism1834
National Health Service/Hospitals1134
Race relations/immigration/immigrants1326
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism1026
Education/schools524
Pensions/social security311
Economy/economic situation410
Housing28
Poverty/inequality28
Taxation18
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry37
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution27
Morality/individual behaviour26
Drug abuse25
Pollution/environment15
Transport/public transport*4
Public services in general13
Tsunami/ South East Asia13
Local government/council tax*3
Countryside/rural life12
Inflation/prices12
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages*2
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament*2
Animal welfare*1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods*1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound*1
Privatisation*1
Petrol prices/fuel01
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform**
AIDS0*
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis0*
Northern Ireland0*
 
Other713
Don't know76

* Please note the re-wording of 'Common Market / EU / Europe / EURO / Constitution' and the addition of 'Tsunami/ South East Asia'

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

 %
Improve12
Stay the same53
Get worse31
Don't know5
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]-19

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,956 British adults 18+

 %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote51
96
88
75
64
56
42
33
22
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote10
Don't know2
Refused0

Q11 Which one of these definitions, if any, comes closest to your political views? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

 %
Old Labour16
New Labour19
One Nation Tory6
Thatcherite Tory11
Liberal12
Social Democratic6
Nationalist3
Other2
None of these15
Don't know9
 
Labour35
Tory17
Liberal/SDP18

Q12 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister -- Mr Blair, Mr Howard or Mr Kennedy? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

 %
Tony Blair39
Michael Howard17
Charles Kennedy17
Don't know27

Q13 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, Tony Blair or Gordon Brown? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

 TotalLabour supportersCon supportersLib Dem supporters
 %%%%
Tony Blair35562834
Gordon Brown39284751
Don't know25162415

Q14 And in general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+

  %
Tony BlairTrustworthy32
Not trustworthy57
Don't know12
Net trustworthy-25
 
Michael HowardTrustworthy28
Not trustworthy47
Don't know26
Net trustworthy-19
 
Charles KennedyTrustworthy47
Not trustworthy29
Don't know24
Net trustworthy+18
 
Gordon BrownTrustworthy50
Not trustworthy31
Don't know19
Net trustworthy+19

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