MORI Political Monitor June 2005

Net satisfaction with the way Tony Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister is at the highest since April 2003. His net satisfaction rating among the public is at -13% (39% satisfied, 53% dissatisfied). Among Labour supporters, net satisfaction is higher than it has been in the last 3 years, in July 2002 (50%). Net satisfaction with Mr Howard as leader of the Conservative Party has followed the opposite pattern: satisfaction with the conservative leader amongst the public peaked as the election neared (-10 net satisfaction in March), but is now back up to -26 net satisfaction, where he was at the end of 2004. Amongst Conservative supporters, these swings are even more pronounced. From a net satisfaction rating of +33 in March this year, support for Mr Howard among Conservative voters has dropped to +2. That is, 42% of Conservative supporters are dissatisfied with Mr Howard as leader of the Conservative party (44% satisfied).

Net satisfaction with the way Tony Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister is at the highest since April 2003. His net satisfaction rating among the public is at -13% (39% satisfied, 53% dissatisfied). Among Labour supporters, net satisfaction is higher than it has been in the last 3 years, in July 2002 (50%). Net satisfaction with Mr Howard as leader of the Conservative Party has followed the opposite pattern: satisfaction with the conservative leader amongst the public peaked as the election neared (-10 net satisfaction in March), but is now back up to -26 net satisfaction, where he was at the end of 2004. Amongst Conservative supporters, these swings are even more pronounced. From a net satisfaction rating of +33 in March this year, support for Mr Howard among Conservative voters has dropped to +2. That is, 42% of Conservative supporters are dissatisfied with Mr Howard as leader of the Conservative party (44% satisfied).

The public say the most important issues facing Britain are the NHS (36%), race relations/immigration (33%) and crime/law and order (30%). The two most significant changes in importance since May are an increase in the number of people mentioning Europe (doubled over the month, which reflects the 'no' votes in France and Holland, and the EU budget row immediately before fieldwork), and fewer people mentioning crime, law and order.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,021 adults aged 18+ at 197 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 16-20 June 2005.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,227)

160 %
Conservative 29
Labour 42
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 3
Other 2
160
Lab lead (177%) +13
160
Would not vote *
Undecided 5
Refused 2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All naming a party (2,021 )

160 %
Conservative 26
Labour 44
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 2
Other 3
160
Lab lead (177%) +18
160
Would not vote 11
Undecided 6
Refused 2

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job? Base: 1,042 British adults 18+

160 Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
160 % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 34 55 11 -21
Blair (Q4) 39 52 9 -13
Howard (Q5) 23 49 28 -26
Kennedy (Q6) 46 26 28 +20

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 1,042 British adults 18+

160 Q7 Q7/8
160 % %
National Health Service/Hospitals 13 36
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 17 33
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 13 30
Education/schools 5 24
Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution 11 19
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 6 16
Economy/economic situation 6 11
Pensions/social security 3 11
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 3 8
Taxation 2 8
Pollution/environment 2 7
Poverty/inequality 2 7
Housing 2 6
Transport/public transport * 5
Drug abuse 1 4
Morality/individual behaviour 1 4
Inflation/prices * 2
Local government/council tax * 2
Public services in general * 2
Countryside/rural life * 1
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 1
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament * 1
Petrol prices/fuel * 1
Tsunami/ South East Asia 0 1
Animal welfare * *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis * *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform * *
Trade unions/strikes * *
AIDS 0 *
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease 0 *
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound 0 *
Privatisation 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 0
160
Other 4 13
Don't know 7 6

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,036 British adults 18+

160 %
Improve 16
Stay the same 48
Get worse 30
Don't know 6
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -14

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 2,021 British adults 18+

160 %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 60
9 6
8 7
7 3
6 2
5 6
4 1
3 2
2 1
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 10
Don't know 1
Refused 0

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