MORI Political Monitor - November 2003

MORI's latest Political Monitor shows that Michael Howard has failed to increase the Conservatives' voting intention share at an immediate General Election. The poll, conducted between 20-25 November 2003, is the first MORI survey of voting intentions and ratings of the party leaders' performance since Michael Howard was officially named as the new Tory leader.

MORI's latest Political Monitor shows that Michael Howard has failed to increase the Conservatives' voting intention share at an immediate General Election. The poll, conducted between 20-25 November 2003, is the first MORI survey of voting intentions and ratings of the party leaders' performance since Michael Howard was officially named as the new Tory leader. The key messages are:

  • Among those certain to vote the Conservatives remain unchanged, but Labour are down slightly
  • Tory supporters are satisfied with Michael Howard's performance
  • The public are still to make their minds up about Michael Howard's performance so far -- though fewer are currently dissatisfied with him than with Tony Blair

Topline Results

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,945 adults aged 18+ at 198 sampling points across Britain. Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 20-25 November 2003. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 1,945 British adults 18+

  %
Conservative 31
Labour 41
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 1
UK Independence Party 1
Other 2
 
Lab lead (177%) +10
 
Would not vote 15
Undecided 10
Refused 1

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All absolutely certain to vote (983)

  %
Conservative 35
Labour 36
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Other 2
 
Lab lead (177%) +1
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 1

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Duncan Smith / Mr Kennedy are doing their job? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government 27 63 11 -36
Blair 32 57 11 -25
Howard 26 17 57 +9
Kennedy 40 18 41 +22

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
National Health Service/Hospitals 13 46
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 25 40
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 9 29
Education/schools 6 27
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 13 26
Economy/economic situation 4 11
Pensions/social security 2 10
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 8
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 2 7
Taxation 2 7
Transport/public transport 1 7
Morality/individual behaviour 2 6
Poverty/inequality 2 5
Housing 1 5
Drug abuse * 4
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 3
Local government/council tax * 3
Inflation/prices * 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
Pollution/environment * 2
AIDS 1 1
Countryside/rural life * 1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * 1
Privatisation * 1
Petrol prices/fuel 0 1
Trade unions/strikes 0 1
Animal welfare 0 *
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease 0 *
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform 0 *
 
Other 6 16
Don't know 7 6

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 14
Stay the same 39
Get worse 41
Don't know 6
 
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -27

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,945 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 49
9 7
8 8
7 5
6 4
5 7
4 2
3 2
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 10
Don't know 2
Refused *

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