MORI Political Monitor October

According to MORI's October 2004 Political Monitor, 39% of those who say they are certain to vote in an immediate General Election would vote Labour. This is the highest share of vote recorded for the Labour Party since December 2003. In contrast, 29% of those certain to vote say they would vote Conservative (their lowest score since April 2003), and 22% Liberal Democrat.

According to MORI's October 2004 Political Monitor, 39% of those who say they are certain to vote in an immediate General Election would vote Labour. This is the highest share of vote recorded for the Labour Party since December 2003. In contrast, 29% of those certain to vote say they would vote Conservative (their lowest score since April 2003), and 22% Liberal Democrat.

The survey shows levels of satisfaction with the Government and the main party leaders, issues facing Britain, and likelihood of voting at a General Election. The MORI/Economic Optimism survey findings are also included here.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,982 adults aged 18+ at 186 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 21-27 October 2004.
  • Data weighted to the national population profile
  • An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,039)

  %
Conservative 29
Labour 39
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 4
Other 1
 
Lab lead (+%) +10
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 2

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?

Base: 1,031 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 28 62 11 -34
Blair (Q4) 30 61 9 -31
Howard (Q5) 23 45 32 -22
Kennedy (Q6) 38 27 34 +11

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 1,031 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 30 47
National Health Service/Hospitals 9 36
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 12 28
Education/schools 5 26
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 12 25
Pensions/social security 5 20
Economy/economic situation 4 11
Taxation 2 9
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 2 7
Housing 2 7
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 2 7
Drug abuse 1 7
Poverty/inequality 1 5
Morality/individual behaviour 1 4
Transport/public transport * 4
Pollution/environment 1 3
Inflation/prices * 3
Public services in general * 3
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament 1 2
Countryside/rural life * 2
Local government/council tax 0 2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 1
Petrol prices/fuel * 1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound 0 1
Animal welfare * *
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease 0 *
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 *
Privatisation 0 *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform 0 *
AIDS 0 0
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis 0 0
Trade unions/strikes 0 0
 
Other 4 11
Don't know 5 4

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 1,031 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 12
Stay the same 45
Get worse 38
Don't know 5
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -26

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: 1,982 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 50
9 6
8 7
7 4
6 3
5 6
4 2
3 3
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 12
Don't know 2
Refused -

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