MORI Political Monitor September

MORI's monthly Political Monitor, conducted for The Observer, between 10 and 14 September shows that the Conservatives have one point lead over Labour among those who say they are certain to vote in an immediate General Election. This is the first time since July 2002 that MORI's Political Monitor has shown a Conservative lead.

MORI's monthly Political Monitor, conducted for The Observer, between 10 and 14 September shows that the Conservatives have one point lead over Labour among those who say they are certain to vote in an immediate General Election. This is the first time since July 2002 that MORI's Political Monitor has shown a Conservative lead.

The survey looks in depth at a range of key factors in voting behaviour, including issues for the election, which party is seen to have the best policies to tackle the key issues, party and leader images and ratings of the Government.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,924 adults aged 18+ at 192 sampling points across Great Britain.
  • Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 10-14 September 2004.
  • Data weighted to the national population profile
  • An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,008)

  %
Conservative 33
Labour 32
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 25
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 4
Other 2
 
Lab lead (+%) -1
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 8
Refused 1

Q2b How strongly do you support the party? Do you support them very strongly, fairly strongly, not very strongly or not strongly at all?

Base: All respondents 18+ expressing a voting preference (1,439)

  %
Strongly 14
Fairly strongly 47
Not very strongly 31
Not strongly at all 7
Don't know 1

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

  Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't know Index
  % % % 177%
Government (Q3) 29 62 9 -33
Blair (Q4) 32 61 7 -29
Howard (Q5) 26 40 34 -14
Kennedy (Q6) 39 25 36 +14

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

  Q7 Q7/8
  % %
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism 23 36
National Health Service/Hospitals 9 34
Education/schools 7 29
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism 10 27
Race relations/immigration/immigrants 14 26
Pensions/social security 3 15
Economy/economic situation 4 10
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency 3 8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry 3 8
Taxation 1 8
Housing 2 7
Drug abuse 2 6
Morality/individual behaviour 2 5
Transport/public transport * 5
Public services in general 2 4
Pollution/environment 1 4
Poverty/inequality 1 4
Inflation/prices 1 3
Local government/council tax * 3
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages * 2
Petrol prices/fuel * 2
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods * 1
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament * 1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound * 1
Countryside/rural life 0 1
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis * *
Privatisation * *
Trade unions/strikes * *
AIDS 0 *
Animal welfare 0 *
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease 0 *
Northern Ireland 0 *
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform 0 *
 
Other 6 15
Don't know 6 5

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

  %
Improve 14
Stay the same 46
Get worse 36
Don't know 5
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] -22

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: 1,924 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 50
9 6
8 8
7 5
6 4
5 7
4 2
3 3
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 11
Don't know 2
Refused *

Q11 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

  %
Asylum 37
Animal welfare 8
Constitution/devolution 5
Defence 24
Education 47
Europe 21
Health care 54
Housing 19
Law and order 45
Managing the economy 24
Pensions 40
Protecting the natural environment 18
Public transport 19
Taxation 33
Trade Unions 3
Unemployment 22
Other 3
Don't know 5

Q12 I am going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today and for each one, I would like you to tell me whether you think that the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party has the best policy on each?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

  Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats Other None of these Don't know
  % % % % % %
Asylum 21 14 8 5 12 40
Animal welfare 7 19 9 6 8 51
Constitution/devolution 16 16 9 3 7 49
Defence 25 20 7 2 8 38
Education 20 27 13 2 7 30
Europe 19 20 11 6 8 35
Health care 15 28 10 3 10 34
Housing 12 24 7 3 10 44
Law and order 25 22 6 3 9 35
Managing the economy 18 32 6 2 8 34
Pensions 15 17 11 3 14 41
Protecting the natural environment 7 13 16 17 9 38
Public transport 10 22 12 5 12 40
Taxation 21 18 11 2 10 38
Trade Unions 15 25 6 2 9 44
Unemployment 12 31 7 2 9 38
Q13-15 Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit…?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

 Q13Q14Q15
 Mr BlairMr HowardMr Kennedy
 %%%
A capable leader301517
Good in a crisis2054
Understands world problems191013
Tends to talk down to people22172
Rather narrow minded17133
Too inflexible2092
Has sound judgement6911
More honest than most politicians11725
Down-to-earth13626
Understands the problems facing Britain201716
Patriotic161911
Has got a lot of personality22711
Rather inexperienced51325
Out of touch with ordinary people44226
No opinion83439

Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties.

Q16-18 Read through the list slowly keeping the [Conservative Party, Labour Party and the Liberal Democrat Party] in mind. Every time you come to a statement that fits your ideas or impressions of the [Conservative Party, Labour Party and the Liberal Democrat Party], just tell the letter next to it. You may pick as many or as few as you like. You don't have to be certain, just pick the letters next to the statements you feel fit the [Conservative Party, Labour Party and the Liberal Democrat Party].

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

 Q16Q17Q18
 ConservativeLabourLiberal Democrats
 %%%
Keeps its promises655
Understands the problems facing Britain212219
Represents all classes102126
Looks after the interests of people like us111213
Moderate141526
Extreme1072
Concerned about the people in real need in Britain101521
Has a good team of leaders6159
Will promise anything to win votes434113
Out of touch with ordinary people31295
Has sensible policies151323
Too dominated by its leader11374
Professional in its approach131111
Divided31293
No opinion181340

Q19 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Mr Blair?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

 %
I like him and I like his policies21
I like him but I dislike his policies27
I dislike him but I like his policies9
I dislike him and I dislike his policies35
No opinion8
 
Like Mr Blair48
Dislike Mr Blair44
Net like Mr Blair+4
 
Like his policies30
Dislike his policies62
Net like his policies-32

Q20 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Mr Howard?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

 %
I like him and I like his policies16
I like him but I dislike his policies13
I dislike him but I like his policies13
I dislike him and I dislike his policies27
No opinion31
 
Like Mr Howard29
Dislike Mr Howard40
Net like Mr Howard-11
 
Like his policies29
Dislike his policies40
Net like his policies-11
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