Predictions for 2013 poll

A new Ipsos MORI poll of predictions for 2013 reveals how likely the British public think it is that the Coalition will break up, NASA will find life on Mars, Prince Harry will get engaged, Andy Murray will win Wimbledon and the UK economy will fall back into recession.

After the jubilant year that was 2012, what do the British public expect to see in 2013?

A new Ipsos MORI poll of predictions for 2013 reveals that one in five Britons (20%) think it is likely that Prince Harry will get engaged this year, while the same proportion (19%) think it likely that the NASA Mars Rover will find evidence of life on Mars.

Andy Murray finally won a major title in 2012, and now half (49%) think it is likely that he will win Wimbledon in 2013. Perhaps unsurprisingly, those in his native Scotland are more likely than others to think he will win this year, with 67% of Scots saying it is likely.

After a dire year weather wise in 2012, around half (50%) expect it to be better in 2013. In particular older Britons expect better weather this year (58% of those aged 55+ compared to 44% of 18-34 year olds). There also appears to be a north-south divide on the weather, with 58% of southerners predicting better weather this year compared to 45% of northerners.

Other predictions include six in ten Britons (61%) saying it is likely that the UK economy will fall back into recession, and an equal number (60%) expecting at least one country to leave the euro in 2013.

Britons are fairly pessimistic for 2013 economically with 56% predicting a rise in the number of unemployed people, and the same proportion expecting inflation to rise. Three in ten (31%) think their standard of living will fall, while 51% expect it to stay the same in 2013, only one in five predict improvements for themselves.  

Despite tensions over the Falkland Islands rising in recent weeks and months, only around one in eight (13%) expect there to be a war over the Islands in 2013.

Around four in ten (38%) think 2013 will see more riots similar to those of summer 2011. Interestingly people in lower social grades are more likely to think it will happen than those in higher social grades (46% of C2DEs compared to 31% of ABC1s).

After the Coalition’s mid-term review kicked off 2013 most people (66%) think the Coalition will survive the year, while 31% think it likely to break up. Women are more likely than men to think the Coalition will break up (36% compared to 26%) while Labour supporters are most likely to think it won’t last the year (38% of Labour voters, 23% of Conservatives and 24% of Liberal Democrats).

Technical Details

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,015 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 12 – 14 January 2013.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

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