Referendum looks too close to call

On the eve of the independence referendum, Ipsos MORI's new poll for STV News has shown significant gains for the Yes campaign, putting the outcome of the vote in the balance.

Referendum looks too close to call

On the eve of the independence referendum Ipsos MORI’s new poll for STV News has shown significant gains for the Yes campaign, putting the outcome of the vote in the balance.

Among those who said that they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote tomorrow, 49% say they intend to vote No (down five percentage points from August), 47% say they will vote Yes (up by seven points), while 5% remain undecided.

 

Turnout for the referendum is now likely to be extremely high, with 95% telling us that they are certain to vote (up by 14 points from August). While this figure is higher, as expected, with those aged 55 and over (97%) it is very high across all age groups, including those aged 16-24, where 90% say they are certain to vote.

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Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos MORI Scotland said:

"With hours to go now until the polls open it is clear that the result of the independence referendum is extremely close. ‘Yes’ have made significant gains in recent week, to such an extent that the outcome is finely balanced. Both campaigns now will be entirely focussed on persuading undecided voters and on ensuring that their supporters turn out to vote tomorrow."

Technical details

  • This presents the topline results from Scotland
  • Results are based on a survey of 1,373 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
  • Fieldwork dates: 15th September to 16th September 2014
  • Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using Scottish Household Survey data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data
  • Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories
  • Results are based on all respondents (1,373) unless otherwise stated

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