Times Election Poll 1992, Week 2

Data on likelihood to vote, voting intention, interest in the campaign and important issues, early in the 1992 election campaign.

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,099 adults aged 18+ at 54 constituency sampling points across Great Britain. Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face, in street, on 16 March 1992, and the results published in The Times on 18 March 1992. Data were weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How do you intend to vote in the General Election on April 9? (If undecided or refused at Q1) Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

  %
Conservative 38
Labour 43
Liberal Democrats 16
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 1
Other *
(Excludes 16% would not vote, undecided or refused)

Q3 From this card, can you tell me how likely you are to get along to vote in the General Election?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Certain not to vote 7 2 3 1
Not very likely to vote 5 2 3 5
Quite likely to vote 8 8 8 6
Very likely to vote 12 11 13 17
Certain to vote 67 77 73 70
Don't know 1 1 * 2

Q4 How strongly do you support the... PARTY NAMED IN Q1 or Q2. Do you support them very strongly, fairly strongly, not very strongly or not strongly at all? Base: All naming a party at Q1/Q2

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Very strongly 31 34 35 11
Fairly strongly 44 42 43 52
Not very strongly 18 18 15 26
Not strongly at all 6 5 6 10
Don't know/no answer 1 2 1 1

Q5 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Improve 36 55 32 29
Stay the same 32 26 35 37
Get worse 21 9 23 22
Don't know 11 9 10 12

Q6 From this card, can you tell me how interested you are in the general election campaign?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Very interested 21 24 26 19
Fairly interested 38 41 42 41
Not particularly interested 24 24 21 27
Not interested at all 16 11 11 12
No opinion 1 1 1 1

Q7 Which two or three issues will be most important to you in helping you to decide which party to vote for in the general election? UNPROMPTED ANSWERS

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
AIDS 1 1 1 1
Defence 3 6 3 1
Disarmament 1 1 1 0
Drugs 1 1 1 2
Education 29 29 31 36
EC/Common Market 2 3 3 3
Foreign policy generally 1 1 1 1
Health care/NHS 50 37 58 44
Housing 9 6 12 10
Immigration 1 1 1 0
Inflation/prices 8 8 7 11
Interest rates 6 10 6 6
Law & order 6 9 4 9
Leisure amenities/facilities * 1 0 0
Managing the economy 15 21 12 17
Northern Ireland * * 0 0
Nuclear power * * 1 1
Nuclear weapons 1 1 * 0
Replacing the poll tax/Council Tax 7 4 9 9
Pollution/the environment 4 4 3 5
Public transport 1 1 2 2
Taxation/tax cuts 13 22 8 10
Trade unions * 1 * 0
The City/financial scandals * * 0 1
Unemployment/jobs 29 21 37 33
Voting system/constitutional reform/devolution 2 1 * 6
Other 26 27 26 29
Don't know 11 10 7 2

Q8 How likely do you think it is that one party will win a clear majority over all other parties in the House of Commons?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Very likely 9 10 11 5
Fairly likely 30 38 30 19
Not very likely 40 38 37 51
Not at all likely 13 7 14 21
No opinion 8 7 8 4

Q9a From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election? Q9b And what would you personally prefer to be the outcome?

  Will be Would prefer
  % %
An overall majority of Conservative MPs 28 31
An overall majority of Labour MPs 19 34
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Conservative Party 18 9
No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Conservative Party 20 8
Other 3 7
Don't know 12 11

Q10 Which political party do you think has the best team of leaders to deal with the country's problems? Q11 And which political party do you think has the best policies for the country as a whole? Q12 And which political party do you think is the most clear and united about what its policies should be?

  Best team of leaders Best policies Most clear and united
  % % %
Conservative 40 32 36
Labour 30 34 29
Liberal Democrats 9 12 14
Other 1 1 1
None 11 6 9
Don't know 9 15 11

Q14 I'm going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today and for each one I would like you to tell me whether the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party has the best policy on each problem.

  Con Lab LD Other None/ don't know
Defence % 49 21 6 1 23
Education % 26 42 11 * 21
Health care % 24 51 8 * 17
Unemployment % 20 46 7 1 26
Law & Order % 40 24 5 * 31
Managing the economy % 36 30 7 1 24
Replacing the poll tax % 24 41 10 1 25
Taxation % 39 33 10 1 17

Q14 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, Mr Major, Mr Kinnock or Mr Ashdown?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Major 42 88 8 24
Kinnock 28 1 67 6
Ashdown 20 7 16 66
Don't know 11 3 9 3

Q15 Do you agree or disagree with the statement "It's time for a change"?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Agree 69 32 95 86
Disagree 27 62 4 10
Neither/no opinion 4 6 1 4

Q16 Do you think the Labour Party should or should not put the 20p income tax band back up to 25p?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Should 31 9 52 38
Should not 57 83 37 49
Don't know 12 8 11 12

Q17 Has the Labour Party's pledge to put the 20p income tax band back up to 25p affected your voting intention or not?

  %
Yes, has affected voting intention 6
No, has not affected voting intention 89
Don't know 5

Q18 (To those saying "yes" at Q17) How has it affected your voting intention? Base: All who say their voting intention had been affected (64)

  %
Switch to Conservative 31
Switch to Labour 21
Switch to Liberal Democrat 20
Switch to other party 11
Other 22

Q19 If you thought that the Liberal Democrats were likely to win in this constituency, then how would you vote in the General Election on April 9? Q20 (If undecided or refused at Q19) Which party would you be most inclined to vote for?

  %
Conservative 29
Labour 32
Liberal Democrats 35
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 1
Other *
(Excludes 11% would not vote, undecided or refused)

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