Voting Intentions in Great Britain 2002-present

Voting intentions based on all those expressing an opinion, from all Ipsos MORI's and MORI's published polls since November 2002. These are NOT the "headline" voting intention figures

This page shows the voting intentions of all respondents who name a party that they say they intend to vote for, whether or not they are certain that they will vote. This is not our "headline" voting intention figure.

We currently regard the voting intentions of those “absolutely certain to vote” as the most useful trend indicator, since it includes only those voters whose frame of mind is nearest to those who actually vote at elections: this has been our "headline" figure since November 2002. (The figures calculated as shown in this table were the "headline" figure up to October 2002. When turnouts were much higher than is usual today, this offered a good approximation to actual voting behaviour; in more recent years it has over-represented Labour’s real electoral strength, since more supporters of Labour than of other parties fail to vote.)

Most polls were conducted with face-to-face interviewing. Polls conducted by telephone are indicated with a (T).

1976-1987 | 1987-1997 | 1997-2002 

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? (Ask those undecided / refused)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

2002 Con Lab Lib Dem Green Dem/ UKIP/ Ref Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
14-19 November 2002 27 47 18 2 1 5 +20
12-17 December 2002 29 43 23 1 1 3 +14
2003 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
23-27 January 2003 27 44 20 4 2 1 2 17
20-25 February 2003 25 44 22 3 2 1 2 19
20-24 March 2003 27 46 20 3 2 1 1 19
24-28 April 2003 26 47 20 4 1 * 2 21
22-28 May 2003 28 43 22 4 2 1 2 15
19-24 June 2003 27 43 22 4 2 1 5 16
17-22 July 2003 32 40 21 3 2 1 4 8
28 August - 2 September 2003 30 40 21 3 2 1 3 10
11-16 September 2003 29 43 21 3 2 1 2 14
23-28 October 2003 35 38 21 3 1 1 2 3
20-25 November 2003 31 41 21 2 1 1 2 10
11-17 December 2003 28 43 22 2 1 1 2 15
2004 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
15-20 January 2004 31 41 20 3 2 1 2 10
12-16 February 2004 32 39 20 3 2 1 3 7
11-16 March 2004 32 40 22 3 2 1 2 8
15-19 April 2004 31 40 21 3 2 1 2 9
27 May - 1 June 2004 30 37 20 3 3 3 3 7
24-29 June 2004 28 37 20 3 4 6 3 9
22-27 July 2004 28 36 23 3 3 5 2 8
12-16 August 2004 30 38 21 2 2 4 3 8
10-14 September 2004 29 37 24 2 2 3 2 8
21-27 October 2004 27 40 22 3 3 3 1 13
4-8 November 2004 29 39 22 3 3 3 2 10
2-6 December 2004 27 40 24 2 3 3 1 13
2005 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
20-24 January 2005 27 42 22 2 2 2 3 15
17-21 February 2005 31 43 18 3 2 1 1 12
17-22 March 2005 33 39 21 3 2 1 1 6
1-3 April 2005* (T) 33 38 23 2 2 2 * 5
7-9 April 2005* (T) 30 41 21 3 2 2 1 +11
7-11 April 2005 30 41 22 2 2 1 2 +11
15-18 April 2005* (T) 31 41 21 2 1 1 3 +10
18-19 April 2005* (T) 28 41 22 2 3 1 3 +13
21-25 April 2005* 30 40 23 2 2 1 2 +10
28-29 April 2005* (T) 32 38 22 2 3 1 2 +6
29 Apr-1 May 2005* (T) 26 41 24 3 2 2 2 +15
General election result (5 May) 33.2 36.2 22.6  8.0 +3
19-23 May 2005 27 40 26 2 2 1 1 +13
16-20 June 2005 26 44 21 2 2 2 3 +18
14-18 July 2005 26 43 25 2 2 1 1 +17
11-15 August 2005 28 43 22 2 1 1 3 +15
22-26 September 2005 28 42 23 3 2 1 1 +14
20-25 October 2005 30 43 21 2 2 1 1 +13
17-22 November 2005 29 46 19 1 2 1 1 +17
9-12 December 2005 (T) 37 35 20 3 4 1 * -2

* Asked as, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th?" (T) = Telephone polls

2006 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
19-23 January 2006 35 42 17 2 2 1 2 +7
16-20 February 2006 33 41 20 2 2 1 1 +8
16-21 March 2006 31 42 19 3 3 1 1 +11
27 April - 2 May 2006 33 35 20 3 4 2 3 +2
25-30 May 2006 36 34 20 3 3 1 3 -2
8-12 June 2006 35 36 19 2 2 2 3 +1
20-22 June 2006 33 37 21 2 3 1 3 +4
20-24 July 2006 32 37 23 2 3 2 1 +5
31 August - 6 September 2006 30 38 22 3 4 1 2 +8
12-16 October 2006 32 41 18 3 3 1 2 +9
9-14 November 2006 31 36 20 3 4 2 4 +5
7-12 December 2006 34 40 18 2 3 2 1 6
2007 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
19-29 January 2007 35 40 18 4 2 * 1 +5
9-15 March 2007 37 39 16 3 3 1 1 +2
19-25 April 2007 34 36 20 3 3 1 4 +2
17-22 May 2007 33 39 18 3 3 2 3 +6
14-20 June 2007 32 42 15 3 3 1 3 +10
12-17 July 2007 31 45 15 3 2 1 3 +14
8-9 August 2007 (T) 29 42 16 2 4 2 5 +13
23-29 August 2007 31 45 16 3 1 * 3 +14
20-22 September 2007 (T) 30 44 15 3 3 2 3 +14
20-26 September 2007 28 48 14 3 2 1 4 +20
27-28 September 2007 (T) 31 45 15 2 2 2 3 +14
10 October 2007 (T) 36 42 12 4 3 1 2 +6
18-23 October 2007 35 43 13 2 2 1 4 +8
29 November-7 December 2007 37 39 14 3 2 1 4 +2

(T) = Telephone polls

2008 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
17-23 January 2008 33 43 15 2 3 1 3 +10
21-26 February 2008 34 42 15 3 2 1 3 +8
13-18 March 2008 35 40 17 2 1 1 4 +5
17-22 April 2008 37 38 16 2 3 2 2 +1
15-20 May 2008 40 34 16 2 2 1 5 -6
13-15 June 2008 (T) 41 34 15 4 2 2 2 -7
18-20 July 2008 (T) 44 38 18 2 4 1 3 -16
15-17 August 2008 (T) 42 28 17 4 4 2 3 -14
12-14 September 2008 (T) 45 29 14 4 4 1 3 -16
17-19 October 2008 (T) 39 33 17 4 4 1 2 -6
14-16 November 2008 (T) 36 41 14 3 3 2 1 +5
27-28 November 2008 (T) 39 37 16 3 3 1 2 -2
10-11 December 2008 (T) 36 40 13 4 2 1 3 +4
12-14 December 2008 (T) 35 36 17 5 3 1 3 +1

(T) = Telephone polls

2009 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
16-18 January 2009 (T) 40 34 17 4 2 1 1 1 -6
13-15 February 2009 (T) 39 31 19 4 3 1 2 1 -8
13-15 March 2009 (T) 39 33 17 4 3 1 2 1 -6
17-19 April 2009 (T) 37 32 20 4 4 1 2 * -5
29-31 May 2009 (T) 35 24 19 3 7 5 3 4 -11
12-14 June 2009 (T) 37 26 20 4 5 5 2 2 -11
19-21 June 2009 (T) 36 25 18 4 5 6 4 2 -11
17-19 July 2009 (T) 35 27 19 3 6 5 3 2 -8
21-23 August 2009 (T) 37 29 18 2 6 3 2 2 -8
25-27 September 2009 (T) 35 26 25 3 4 4 1 2 -9
16-18 October 2009 (T) 40 31 18 4 3 2 1 1 -9
13-15 November 2009 (T) 34 34 16 4 4 3 3 2 0
11-13 December 2009 (T) 37 31 18 3 3 4 2 1 -6
2010 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
26-28 January 2010 (T) 38 34 17 4 3 2 2 1 -4
19-22 February 2010 (T) 35 34 19 3 3 2 3 1 -1
19-22 March 2010 (T) 32 33 22 3 3 4 2 2 +1
18-19 April 2010 (T) 29 30 31 2 1 3 2 2 -1
23 April 2010 (T) 35 31 24 3 1 3 2 1 -4
5 May 2010 (T) 33 32 26 3 2 3 1 1 -1
Election result (6 May) 36.9 29.7 23.6 9.8 -7
18-20 June 2010(T) 35 34 19 1 4 1 2 2 -1
23-25 July (T) 38 35 15 1 4 2 2 * -3
10-12 Sept (T) 36 37 16 3 3 2 1 1 +1
15-17 Oct (T) 37 38 14 3 4 2 1 1 +1
12-14 Nov (T) 33 43 14 3 4 2 * 1 +10
10-12 Dec (T) 36 38 13 3 4 3 1 * +2

(T) = Telephone polls

 

2011 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
21-24 January 2011 (T) 32 42 15 1 3 4 1 2 +10
18-20 February 2011 (T) 34 41 14 3 3 3 1 1 +7
11-13 March 2011 (T) 35 41 11 3 4 3 1 1 +6
15-17 April 2011 (T) 36 40 12 4 3 3 1 * +4
20-24 May 2011 (T) 33 41 11 5 5 2 1 1 +8
17-19 June 2011 (T) 36 39 12 5 3 3 1 1 +3
16-18 July 2011 (T) 31 42 10 5 5 3 2 2 +11
20-22 August 2011 (T) 34 40 13 3 5 2 * 1 +6
10-12 September 2011 (T) 34 38 13 6 5 3 1 0 +4
22-24 October 2011 (T) 33 40 13 5 4 3 1 1 +7
19-21 November 2011 (T) 33 42 13 3 5 3 * 1 +9
10-12 December 2011 (T) 39 38 12 5 2 2 1 1 -1
2012 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
21-23 January 2012 (T) 38 38 12 3 4 3 1 * 0
25-27 February 2012 (T) 33 43 12 3 5 1 1 1 +10
17-19 March 2012 (T) 35 38 12 3 5 3 1 2 +3
21-23 April 2012 (T) 35 40 11 6 4 3 1 1 +5
12-14 May 2012 (T) 32 43 9 4 5 6 1 1 +11
9-11 June 2012 (T) 29 43 11 5 5 5 2 1 +14
14-16 July 2012 (T) 32 41 13 4 4 4 1 1 +9
11-13 August 2012 (T) 33 41 13 3 5 3 1 1 +8
15-17 September 2012 (T) 32 42 12 3 6 3 * 1 +10
20-24 October 2012 (T) 32 43 11 5 3 4 1 2 +11
10-13 November 2012 (T) 30 46 11 5 3 3 1 1 +16
8-10 December 2012 (T) 32 43 10 3 4 7 1 1 +11
2013 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP/ Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
12-14 January 2013 (T) 31 45 9 3 3 7 * 2 +14
9-11 February 2013 (T) 31 41 9 3 5 8 1 1 +10

(T) = Telephone polls

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