Global Consumer Confidence Is Declining
At 49.6, Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence Index in December is now 0.9 points below its level in September when it hit an all-time record high. The index is now at its lowest point in 14 months. With a 71.4 score, China maintains its lead as the most confident global economy despite a three-month drop of 3.0 points. Saudi Arabia (+4.0 to 62.9) moves to second place ahead of the United States (-0.5 to 62.1), India (-3.4 to 61.3), and Sweden (-0.9 to 60.6). Turkey (-7.9 to 31.7), Argentina (+1.0 to 37.9), France (-4.9 to 38.5), and South Africa (-2.3 to 39.2) are the most pessimistic countries in the index. Only three countries see a significant increase of 1.5 points or more: Brazil (+5.7 to 48.2), Saudi Arabia, and Mexico (+1.9 to 52.4). Meanwhile, eight countries see a significant decrease: Turkey, France, India, China, South Africa, Belgium (-2.2 to 46.8), Spain (-1.7 to 42.1), and South Korea (-1.6 to 41.2).
December’s global Jobs Index also falls 0.9 points to 58.4. Three countries enjoy Jobs Index scores of more than 70 points: Sweden (unchanged at 75.2), the United States (+0.6 to 75.1), and Germany (-1.5 to 72.1). The top gainers include Brazil (+4.5 to 39.5), Mexico (+3.3 to 53.2), Hungary (+2.0 to 58.7), and Argentina (+1.5 to 44.2). Turkey (-7.2 to 38.9), Brazil, South Africa (-4.5 to 41.7), and Argentina are the five lowest scorers. Meanwhile, the five countries showing the steepest decreases include Turkey, China (-4.9 to 68.3), South Africa, France (-3.2 to 56.1), and Great Britain (-2.4 to 65.5).
This month’s global Expectations Index shows a lesser drop of 0.3 points to rest at 58.0. China (-1.2 to 72.7) remains the lone country with an Expectations Index value above 70. Only Brazil (+6.3 to 68.4) and Saudi Arabia (+3.7 to 67.6) report significant increases in December. Turkey (-6.0 to 40.9) shows both the lowest Expectations Index score of any country and the most negative three-month change. Expectations are also down significantly in France (-3.5 to 46.1), Great Britain (-2.4 to 51.8), South Korea (-1.9 to 49.2), South Africa (-1.7 to 49.5), India (-1.7 to 69.0), and Belgium (-1.6 to 53.3).
Consumers around the world are showing a lesser propensity to invest. The global Investment Index is down to 42.7 as it dropped by 1.2-points over the past three months. In total, twelve countries see a significant decline, most of all Turkey (-9.5 to 23.8 – its lowest Investment score since the launch of the index in March 2010), France (-6.6 to 26.0 – its lowest level in more than three years), and India (-5.5 to 61.0 – its lowest level in more than four years). The other nine countries undergoing a notable drop are Belgium, China, South Korea, Japan, the U.S., Sweden, Spain, South Africa, and Hungary. Their losses are offset by significant gains in only two countries: Saudi Arabia (+6.5 to 64.7) and Brazil (+5.9 to 48.9). Despite being down, China and India’s scores are still among the world’s top three, along with Saudi Arabia’s. The countries with the lowest Investment Index scores are now, in order: Turkey, France, Japan (-2.0 to 26.7), Argentina (-0.2 to 30.0), South Korea (-2.3 to 30.6), Hungary (-1.5 to 34.0), and Russia (-1.2 to 34.3).
