Global Consumer Confidence Reports in at 50.5
This August’s Global Consumer Confidence Index reports in at 50.5, representing a 0.2-point decrease over the last three months. As they did last month, China (+1.3 to 73.6), India (-0.7 to 64.0), the United States (-1.8 to 61.8), and Sweden (-0.9 to 61.2) remain the countries that are most optimistic about the state of their economies. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Argentina (39.2) is the only country reporting a score lower than 40 after a drastic 5.2-point drop. Italy sees the greatest increase in its score, reporting a 5.4-point increase to 45.0. Mexico, having elected a new administration over the course of the past three months, follows closely behind after reporting a gain of 5.0 points to a score 49.6. Three other countries also show increases of more than 1.5 points: Turkey (+3.2 to 41.5), Belgium (+1.8 to 49.9), and Spain (+1.6 to 44.8). Balancing out these significant gains, six countries experience a significant decrease, including Argentina (-5.2 to 39.2), South Africa (-3.7 to 41.8), South Korea (-3.2 to 44.2), Brazil (-2.5 to 41.9), Hungary (-2.5 to 43.5), and the United States.
This month’s Job Index sees a 0.6-point uptick to 59.1. Four countries reported strong indices greater than 70 including Sweden (+2.1 to 75.7), China (-1.4 to 72.8), the US (+0.4 to 72.8), and Germany (+0.8 to 72.3). In total, eight countries see significant increases, most of all Italy (+4.7 to 55.4) Turkey (+3.9 to 47.4), and Mexico (+2.7 to 49.4). On the other hand, just three countries see a significant decrease: South Africa (-3.3 to 45.7), Argentina (-3.3 to 44.9), Hungary (-3.0 to 56.4).
The global Investment Index dips by 0.2 points this month, falling to 43.9. China reports the most positive perceptions of their finance and investment situation with an index score of 74.2, up by 3.5 points. India reports as a distant second with a score of 65.8, down 0.5 points. Japan is the only country to come in with a score below 30, reporting an index value of 28.4 after a 0.2-point increase. This month, the Investment index was the most volatile mover with seven countries seeing a significant increase and seven seeing a significant decrease. Italy (+5.1 to 35.2), Mexico (+4.9 to 46.6), and China report the most impressive increases. Meanwhile, Argentina reports a concerning 7.0-point drop to 32.8. Argentina is followed by South Korea (-3.9 to 34.1), Sweden (-3.4 to 53.4), and Brazil (-3.1 to 42.1) as the next biggest fallers.
The first wave of American tariffs took effect on July 6 and this reality may have begun affecting global economic expectations. The global Expectations Index shows a 0.9-point drop to 58.7, indicating a level of pessimism toward the future of the world economy. Just three countries see significant increases compared to nine countries reporting significant decreases in their economic expectations. The three most optimistic countries report impressive three-month gains. Mexico (+7.3 to 65.7) continues to express great optimism for their economy as President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador prepares to be sworn in. Italy (+4.5 to 57.2) and Turkey (+4.2 to 49.9) are the only other countries to report significant jumps. South Africa sees the largest drop in its Expectations index this month, falling by 7.1 points to 52.4. Argentina (-5.1 to 53.2) and South Korea (-4.7 to 53.1) also see notable drops with Brazil (-3.8 to 61.8) and Hungary (-3.4 to 54.5) rounding out the top-five fallers. China one of the biggest US tariff targets, still shows the largest Expectations Index (73.3), but it is down 1.1 points over a three-month period.
