[Ipsos Public] Analysis of South Korea's Political Climate, Prospects for the Administration in February

General Review of the Administration in January

• In January, after the passage of the prosecution reform bill that called for further adjustment of investigative authority, an increase in President Moon's approval rating was anticipated. Such expectations became a reality during the second week of January, when Moon’s approval rating began to increase. However, President Moon’s approval rating fell once again due to the controversy surrounding the reshuffling of senior prosecutors and the outbreak of the coronavirus. (Source: Gallup Korea). Approval ratings are expected to fluctuate due to the continuous spread of the coronavirus. Due to widespread fear of the virus, the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK)’s approval rating hit an all-time low of 34%.
• The Liberty Korea Party (LKP)’s approval rating failed to increase despite negative feedback of Moon and his administration. The Non-Partisan Party experiences a rapid increase in its approval rating, showing that supporters of the DPK have shifted their support towards the Non-Partisan Party instead of the LKP. Although the LKP’s approval rating is failing to increase despite growing negative sentiments toward the DPK, an increase in the newly integrated conservative bloc is expected depending on its performance.
• The centrist group increased to 31%, as a result of progressives switching over to the centrist group. The number of conservatives has slightly increased, which may be seen as a result of individuals uncertain of their political ideologies joining the conservative group. Attention will be given to whether the integration of the LKP and the New Conservative Party into the new conservative bloc will receive support due to existing political differences between the two parties. The general public expected greater national support towards prosecutorial reform following the passage of the prosecution and investigative authority revision bills.
• Growing concerns regarding the spread of the virus has had a negative impact on the ruling party. Negative public sentiment towards the ruling party strengthened primarily due to Moon’s slow response to the crisis, especially in comparison to Europe and the US. .

An Analysis of How the Government Handled the Spread of Infectious Diseases Previously

• The continuous outbreak of infectious diseases such as SARS, MERS and the novel coronavirus are raising concerns globally. While South Korea was not heavily affected by SARS, the country was affected by the MERS outbreak in May 2015, with 186 confirmed cases and a 20% mortality rate. Since the novel coronavirus originated from a neighboring country, it will be difficult for the South Korean government to declare an end to the outbreak unless China does so first.
• Positive assessment of the administration also decreased immediately after the MERS outbreak. Concerns regarding the MERS outbreak started to decrease around four months after the outbreak, increasing the administration’s approval rating to 50% in September 2015.
• The circumstances of the coronavirus are similar to those of the MERS outbreak. In the short run, the outbreak of the novel coronavirus will inevitably have a negative impact on Moon’s administration. However, the ruling party argues that the decrease in its approval rating should be attributed to the recent controversies surrounding prosecutorial reform instead of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Main Events and Trend Forecast for February

• Coronavirus is anticipated to be the focus of February. Political parties will be expected to actively launch their political campaigns as the April 15th general elections approach. The launch of the new, integrated conservative party will receive a significant amount of interest from the general public, especially the party’s representatives and the direction it will be headed.

Three Main Takeaways of the Political Climate in February
① Will Fears Regarding the Coronavirus Subside?

• Fear of the virus spreading pervasively within domestic borders and Chinese people are prevalent since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Apart from the rising xenophobic sentiment against those of East Asian descent, countries are actively imposing travel restrictions to and from China. The spread of the virus in South Korea is expected to reach its peak in early or mid-February. Even if the number of confirmed cases ceases to increase, anxiety surrounding the remain unless China declares an end to the outbreak. Global fear surrounding the coronavirus will probably be prevalent until April.

② Who Will Act on the Current Health Crisis Amidst the State Personnel Reshuffling Conflict?

• While the ruling and opposition parties are actively imposing the new election rules for the upcoming general elections, the ‘mixed member-proportional (MMP) representation’ system is influencing the creation of numerous minority parties. Unlike the previous general elections, many new parties are being established since a party vote of at least 3% allows for a spot in the National Assembly. The progressive parties including the DPK and the Justice Party, which are both part of the larger ruling party. The conservative parties include the LKP, New Conservative Party, Patriots’ Party, and the Unification Party. Former Bareunmirae Chariman Cheol-soo Ahn intends to rally support from the centrist group for his new political party.
• Although the opposition parties are actively restructuring themselves in order to gain an upper hand in the upcoming general elections, public opinion of the political parties will not be revealed until sometime in February. The restructuring of the opposition bloc is most likely going to favor the DPK instead of the opposition parties themselves since the DPK represents a collective interest. The opposition parties are divided into conservatives and progressives, which are also subdivided into parties with various political interests, allowing the DPK to have an upper hand for the upcoming general elections. The integration of the LKP and the New Conservative party is to take place sometime in February, raising discussions for the possible inclusion of Ahn Cheol-soo’s new political party,

③ What Decision Will Those Who Are 'Cut Off' Make?

• ‘Cut-offs’ are a way to prevent candidates from participating in primary elections. Final ‘cut offs’ of the LKP will be announced in early- or mid-February and DPK’s will be announced at the end of February. According to current election laws, those who left a party cannot join a different party or run as an independent candidate. However, it is possible for those who were ‘cut-off’ to do so. In LKP’s case, the general elections planning committee set the cut-off ratio for incumbent lawmakers to be a third of the district, which could eliminate at least 30 lawmakers from the screening process.
• There will be setbacks to the general elections depending on whether the ‘cut-off’ members join other conservative parties (Patriots’ Party or Unification Party) or run as independent candidates. Members ‘cut-off’ from the DPK may also join different parties (Ahn Cheol-soo’s new political party or New Alternatives Party) or run as independent candidates, but either decision will have an insignificant impact on the general elections.

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