The economy rears its ugly head
President Donald Trump is at an inflection point.
Trump’s approval rating is approaching the 40% danger zone, where presidents lose traction, after seeing a faster-than-normal decline over the past year. His approval is still above where he was at this point in his first presidency, but the gap is closing.
The unsurprising force behind all this: the economy
Below are five charts on where Americans stand on the economy and how it’s affecting how they view the Trump administration.
1. Consumer signals turn negative. Overall confidence, attitudes of the job market, and future expectations have all declined compared to the start of the year. Meanwhile, the economy has again become the top issue.
2. Affordability is the squeeze. Costs are still rising, and wages are lagging even further behind. The high cost of living acts like a regressive tax on less affluent, Black, Hispanic, and younger Americans. These coalitions pinned the blame on former President Joe Biden in 2024; now the arrow is pointing towards Trump.
3. The Epstein files erode trust. Most Americans disapprove of how Trump has handled the saga around the Epstein files. In the eyes of the public, the saga points to an elite cover-up, going against the grain of Trump’s generally anti-elite appeal. This hasn’t harmed Trump’s approval in a measurable way, but it hasn’t helped.
4. Venezuela. Venezuela offers little upside beyond the GOP base. Yes, Americans are concerned about the impact of illicit drugs on American public health. It’s just fairly low on the list of priorities.
5. What it all means: Trump is approaching the approval danger zone. Trump’s approval has fallen to 42%, the lowest of his second presidency. Trump’s 9-point drop this year is unusually steep for a sitting president compared to the five-point historic average. Plus, the impact of tariffs hasn’t fully materialized yet. Expect another 1-3 points off his approval. Near the 40% danger zone is where presidents lose traction. Watch this space.
The next few months will be a major test for Trump’s second administration. The loyalty of Trump’s base has never been in question (and for the most part, still isn’t). But the broader coalitions he was able to make gains on in 2024 are slowly backing away. To those Americans, Trump’s success is defined more by their personal pocketbook than what happens in Venezuela.
Right now, Trump is boxed in. He does not have near-term control over the economy; everything he can influence, while popular among his base, is unpopular among the public as a whole.
Of course, Trump has battled back from certain political demise (as prescribed by pundits) many, many times. It would be unwise to think the sky is falling now. If the economy and perceptions of the cost of living improves, and if the public gives Trump credit for those improvements, Trump can regain some of what he’s lost. But with the 2026 midterms fast approaching, the window to do so is closing.
