Daily Mail Ipsos National Poll 3 Report
The two party preferred estimate based on stated preferences shows Labor on 48%, leading the Coalition 47%, and 5% of Australians saying they are currently undecided.
Two party preferred estimate shows Labor on 48% and the Coalition on 47%
Voting Intention
Two-party preferred vote, based on stated preference flows:
- Including undecided voters: Labor 48%, Coalition 47% and undecided 5%.
- Reallocating undecided voters, based on stated past voting behaviour: Labor 51% and Coalition 49%.
The two party preferred estimate based on stated preferences shows Labor on 48%, leading the Coalition 47%, and 5% of Australians saying they are currently undecided.
When undecided voters are excluded, the two-party preferred figures (based on respondent stated preference flows) show Labor leading the Coalition 51% to 49%.
When undecided voters are reallocated on the basis of past voting behaviour, the two party preferred figures are Labor 51% and Coalition 49%.
The national poll of 2,574 adult Australians, all enrolled and certain to vote1, interviewed from 28 April – 1 May 2025.
The Coalition’s first preference vote is 33%, with Labor on 28%. The Greens’ primary vote is 12%, One Nation is on 8%, Trumpet of Patriots is on 2%, others are on 12% and 5% say they currently do not know which party they will vote for.
When undecided voters are excluded, first preference vote for the Coalition is 35%, with Labor on 30%. The Greens are on 12%, One Nation is on 9%, Trumpet of Patriots is on 2% and others are on 13%.
Were there to be a uniform national swing, the combined poll findings suggest that this will lead to a Labor minority government. However, there are likely to be distinct seat results that will determine the outcome.
Leaders Approval
Two in five (36%) Australians approve of Anthony Albanese’s performance as Prime Minister and (42%) disapprove, giving a balance of opinion of -6. This is a decline of five percentage points over the last week (when the balance of opinion was -1).
As seen in last week’s poll, the Prime Minister’s approval rating is higher among women (+2); Australians aged 18-34 (+20) and Daily Mail readers (+3).
Just over a quarter (27%) of Australians approve of Peter Dutton’s performance as Opposition Leader, half (51%) disapprove. This gives a balance of opinion of -24. Consistent with last week’s poll, his approval rating is slightly more positive among men (-18) and older Australians (aged 55+, -9).
At -24, the performance rating of the current Opposition Leader (Dutton) remains the lowest Ipsos has seen over the last twenty years of polling trend data.
Preferred Prime Minister
When choosing between the two main party leaders in this election, almost half of Australians (48%) select Anthony Albanese as their preferred Prime Minister; 34% select Peter Dutton. This gives a positive balance of opinion of +14 for Albanese, which is the same as shown in last week’s poll results. The proportion having no opinion on either leader has diminished over the course of the campaign.
Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred Prime Minister is stronger among women (+19); Australians aged 18-34 (+41) and 35-54 (+18); and Daily Mail readers (+23).
When compared to historical trend data, these results suggest that Anthony Albanese is in a strong position in this election. This is the most positive result for preferred Prime Minister that Ipsos has observed since Malcolm Turnbull in 2016.
Who is going to win the Federal Election?
Regardless of their voting intention, six in ten (59%) of Australians think the Labor Party will win the 2025 Federal Election. One quarter (23%) think the Coalition will win.
Three in five (59%) believing that the Labor party will win the Federal is an increase of eleven points over the last week of the campaign.
If Albanese were to step down, who is the preferred Labor PM?
Penny Wong (17%) and Jim Chalmers (11%) are named by a minority of Australians as alternative prime ministers, if Anthony Albanese were to step down.
However, half of Australians either don’t know (27%) or do not choose any of the suggested candidates (22%).
