Ipsos National Poll Report

Key findings

• Two-party preferred vote, based on 2019 election preferences: Labor 55% and Coalition 45%. Including, those currently undecided adjusts the results to: Labor 51%, Coalition 42% and those undecided 7%.
• First preferences: Labor is on 35%, Coalition is on 31% and those undecided 7%
• Scott Morrison’s approval rating is 33%, and his disapproval rating is 48%.
• Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is 30%, and his disapproval rating is 32%.
• 37% prefer Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister; 38% prefer Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister. 
• 39% think the Federal Budget was fair; 37% do not think it was fair.
• 40% feel the Budget was economically responsible; 38% do not think it was economically responsible.
• 29% think they will personally be better off because of the Federal Budget; 23% think they’ll be worse off; 39% think it will make no difference.

 Voting intention

The two-party preferred figures (based on 2019 preference flow) show the Labor Party leading the Coalition, 55% to 45%. When this includes those currently undecided, the figures are 51% Labor compared to 42% Coalition, and 7% of Australians saying they are currently undecided in how they would vote at a Federal Election.

The national poll of 2,563 respondents, interviewed from 20 March – 2 April 2022. The poll had a credibility interval (the error margin associated with the effective sample size for the research) of =+/-2.1%.

The Coalition’s first preference vote is 31%, with Labor on 35%. The Greens’ primary vote is 10%, One Nation is on 4%, United Australia Party is on 2%, others are on 8% and 7% say they don’t know, with 2% currently unenrolled.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is 33%, and his disapproval rating is 48%. The proportion who say they ‘neither approve nor disapprove’ or ‘don’t know’ is 19%. This gives a negative balance of opinion of -15, in contrast to the balance of opinion of +9, at the same point prior to the 2019 Federal Election.

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is 30%, with disapproval rating is 32%. While this gives a better balance of opinion (-2) than Scott Morrison, a significant minority are still to form a clear opinion of Albanese’s performance, with 38% saying they neither approve nor disapprove or don’t know. 

There is no difference in who the public say they would prefer as Prime Minister; 37% say they prefer Scott Morrison as Prime Minister, and 38% would prefer Anthony Albanese. This is a weaker position for Scott Morrison than at the same period, prior to the 2019 Federal Election (46% preferred Prime Minister).

Fair Budget

Two in five (39%) Australians consider Tuesday’s Federal Budget as fair; 37% do not. This gives a positive balance of opinion of +2. This is in contrast to the balance of opinion of +12, following the first Morrison/Frydenberg budget prior to the 2019 Federal Election.

The budget was well received among Coalition voters, with 72% considering it ‘fair’. In contrast, only 26% of Labor voters and one in five Green voters (19%) describe the budget as ‘fair’. Those who own or are buying their home on mortgage are significantly more likely than others to consider it a fair budget (42% and 32%, respectively).

Was the Budget economically responsible?

Equal proportions consider the budget economically responsible (40%), and not economically responsible (38%). 

Seven in ten (71%) of those intending to vote for the Coalition believe the budget was economically responsible, but the majority of those currently intending to vote Labor (52%) or Green (59%) disagree.

na=not asked

Personal impact of the Budget

Three in ten (29%) believe that this year’s Federal Budget will make them personally feel better off; a quarter (22%) think they’ll feel worse off and two in five (39%) think it will make no difference. 

While still positively received, with a balance of opinion of +7, this a weaker endorsement than the response to the budget prior to the 2019 Federal Election (+14). Twice as many people are likely to think this budget will make no difference to them personally (39%, compared to 20% in 2019).

Coalition voters are more likely to think they’ll be better off because of the Budget (47%), in contrast to Labor (23%) and Green (20%) voters.