Ipsos National Poll Report

Key findings

Voting Intention

• Two-party preferred vote, based on 2019 election preference flows:
  • Including undecided voters: Labor 50% (down 1 point[1]), Coalition 42% (no change) and those undecided 8% (up 1 point).
  • Excluding undecided voters: Labor 55% (no change since previous poll) and Coalition 45% (also no change).
• First preferences: Labor is on 34% (down 1 point), Coalition is on 32% (up 1 point) and those undecided 8% (up 1 point).

Leadership

• Prime Minister Morrison’s approval rating is 34% (up 1 point), and his disapproval rating is 48% (stable). This gives Mr Morrison a combined rating of NET minus 15 points.
• Opposition leader Albanese’s approval rating is 31% (up 1 point), and his disapproval rating is 35% (up 3 points) for a combined rating of NET minus 4 points.
• 38% prefer Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister (up 1 point); 40% prefer Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister (up 2 points).
• Of the five leadership attributes measured, Morrison leads on two, Albanese leads on two, and one was drawn.
  • Morrison leads on:
    • having a firm grasp of economic policy (48% compared to 31% for Albanese)
    • having a clear vision for Australia’s future (41% compared to 37% for Albanese)
  • Albanese leads on:
    • Being trustworthy (41% compared to 30% for Morrison). The trustworthy score for Morrison is the lowest recorded
    • Having the confidence of his party (52% compared to 44% for Morrison)
  • Equal proportions considered Morrison and Albanese competent (42% each) – another all-time low, but one on which Morrison and Albanese are tied.

Perceived outcome

• 42% believe Labor will win this election; 34% believe the Coalition will do so.

Voting intention

Two party preferred figures were calculated using the standard Ipsos model. This model takes first preference responses, adds those leaning toward a particular party, and calculates preferences for minor parties based on actual preference flows from the 2019 election.

The two party preferred estimate shows Labor (50%, down 1 point) leading the Coalition (42%, stable) with 8% (up one point) of Australians saying they are currently undecided.

When undecided voters are excluded, the two-party preferred figures (based on 2019 preference flows) show Labor leading the Coalition 55% to 45% (no change). 

The national poll of 2,302 respondents, interviewed from 20–23 April 2022. The poll had a credibility interval (the error margin associated with the effective sample size for the research) of =+/-2.2%.

The Coalition’s first preference vote is 32%, with Labor on 34%. The Greens’ primary vote is 12%, One Nation is on 4%, United Australia Party is on 3%, others are on 8% and 8% say they currently do not know which party they will vote for. With electoral rolls now closed, those currently unenrolled were excluded. 

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is 34% (up 1 point), and his disapproval rating is 48% (stable). The proportion stating they ‘neither approve nor disapprove’ or ‘don’t know’ is 18%. This gives a negative balance of opinion of -15, in contrast to the balance of opinion of +9, at the same point prior to the 2019 Federal Election.

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is 31% (up 1 point), with a disapproval rating of 35% (up three points). While this gives a better balance of opinion (-5), Albanese’s performance rating has fallen since the start of the campaign. Further, a large minority are still to form a clear opinion of Albanese’s performance, with 34% (down 4 points) saying they neither approve nor disapprove or do not know.

There remains little difference in who the public say they would prefer as Prime Minister; 38% say they prefer Scott Morrison (up 1 point), and 40% prefer Anthony Albanese (up two points). This is a weaker position for Scott Morrison than at the same period, prior to the 2019 Federal Election (46% preferred Prime Minister).

Leader attributes

The tables below show the leadership attribute scores for Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, and how these compare historically for Prime Ministers and Opposition Leaders.

Of the five attributes, Scott Morrison leads on 2 (those emboldened in the table below). Anthony Albanese also leads on two, with the final rating drawn.

Mr Morrison’s relative strength is the perception he has a firm grasp of economic policy. Mr Morrison’s clear lead on this front is almost certainly due to a combination of the Coalition’s historical advantage on economic management as well as Mr Albanese’s inability to correctly recall unemployment rate and the RBA cash rate. While Mr Morrison leads here, his absolute rating remains relatively low compared to past leaders.

In comparison, Mr Albanese has a clear lead on being perceived as trustworthy. Albanese is helped in this by Morrison receiving the lowest trustworthy rating recorded. Morrison’s rating is five points below the previous low of 35% for Tony Abbot in 2015.

Mr Morrison’s ratings are markedly lower now than when last measured in May 2019. Morrison has declined significantly on all leadership aspects and is also well below his immediate predecessor Malcolm Turnbull.

While Mr Morrison’s ratings are low compared to his past self and predecessors, ratings for Albanese are low compared to past leaders. Albanese rated lower than Bill Shorten’s May 2019 scores on four of five attributes, leading only on perceived trustworthiness, and only on that marginally (+2 points).

Finally, Mr Morrison and Mr Albanese drew on perceived competence – with an equal, all-time low of 42%. This underscores the views of the undecided voters participating in the focus groups who – irrespective of past voting behaviour – expressed a lack of enthusiasm for the options presented at this election.

ATTRIBUTES TREND DATA

[1] When compared to the previous poll undertaken 30 March to 2 April 2022