Ipsos National Poll Report

Labor maintain lead as election tightens

Key findings

Voting Intention

  • Two-party preferred vote, based on 2019 election preference flows:
    • Including undecided voters: Labor 51% (down 1 point[1]), Coalition 44% (up 4 points) and undecided 5% (down 2 points).
    • Excluding undecided voters: Labor 54% (down 3 points) and Coalition 46% (up 3 points).
    • Reallocating undecided voters, based on past voting behaviour: Labor 53% and Coalition 47%. Ipsos believes this is the most accurate 2PP model for this late stage of the campaign.

Note: Our traditional method for estimating voting intention when some people are undecided is to exclude these voters from calculations. This approach effectively assumes the votes of undecideds will be distributed across parties in the same pattern as the rest of the population.

We believe using past voting behaviour in the last federal election to reallocate undecided voters may provide a more accurate method. Using this method, we are taking into account known previous behaviour for undecided voters rather than assuming we know nothing about them (and therefore that they are similar to those who have provided their voting intention).

Leadership

  • Prime Minister Morrison’s approval rating is 34% (up 2 points), and his disapproval rating is 51% (unchanged). This gives Mr Morrison a combined rating of NET minus 17 points.
  • Opposition leader Albanese’s approval rating is 33% (up 3 points), and his disapproval rating is 37% (up 1 point) for a combined rating of NET minus 4 points.
  • 39% prefer Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister (up 3 points); 42% prefer Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister (up 1 point). One in five (19%) are still uncommitted. 

Perceived outcome

  • 52% believe Labor will win this election (up 5 points); 28% believe the Coalition will remain in office (down 2 points).

Voting intention

The two party preferred estimate shows Labor (51%, down 1 point) leading the Coalition (44%, up 4 points) with 5% (down 2 points) of Australians saying they are currently undecided.

When undecided voters are excluded, the two-party preferred figures (based on 2019 preference flows) show Labor leading the Coalition 54% to 46% (a 3 point fall for the ALP, and a 3 point increase for the Coalition).

When undecided voters are reallocated on the basis of past voting behaviour, the two party preferred figures are Labor 53% and Coalition 47%.

The national poll of 1,996 adult Australians, all enrolled and certain to vote[2], interviewed from 15 - 18 May 2022.

The Coalition’s first preference vote is 33%, with Labor on 34%. The Greens’ primary vote is 12%, One Nation is on 4%, United Australia Party is on 3%, others are on 8% and 5% say they currently do not know which party they will vote for.

When undecided voters are excluded, first preference vote for the Coalition is 35%, with Labor on 36%. The Greens is on 13%, One Nation is on 5%, United Australia Party is on 3% and others are on 8%.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is 34% (up 2 points), and his disapproval rating is 51% (steady). The proportion stating they ‘neither approve nor disapprove’ or ‘don’t know’ is at 15% (down 3 points). This gives a negative balance of opinion of -17.

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is 33% (up 3 points), with a disapproval rating of 37% (up 1 point). This gives a negative balance of opinion (-4). Further, nearly a third of voters (30%) have still not formed a clear opinion of Albanese’s performance at this late stage of the campaign, saying they neither approve nor disapprove or do not know. This compares to one in six (15%) who say the same of Morrison.

Voters preference for Prime Minister is becoming clearer; 39% say they prefer Scott Morrison (up 3 points), and 42% prefer Anthony Albanese (up 1 point). 

Q2. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the performance of … as Prime Minister?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

 

May 2004

May 2005

May 2006 

May 2007

May 2008 

May 2009 

May 2010

May 2011

May 2012

May 2013

May 2014

May 2015

May 2016

May 2017

May
2018

April
2019

May

2019

30 Mar-2 April

20-23 April

4-7 May

15-18 May

%

Howard (PM)

Howard (PM)

Howard (PM)

Howard (PM)

Rudd (PM)

Rudd (PM)

Rudd (PM)

Gillard (PM)

Gillard (PM)

Gillard (PM)

Abbott (PM)

Abbott (PM)

Turnbull (PM)

Turnbull (PM)

Turnbull (PM)

Morrison (PM)

Morrison (PM)

Morrison (PM)

Morrison (PM)

Morrison (PM)

Morrison (PM)

Approve

52

53

53

51

69

64

45

43

35

40

34

42

48

45

51

48

48

33

34

32

34

Disapprove

41

40

42

43

22

32

49

52

60

56

62

50

40

44

39

39

43

48

48

51

51

Net approve

+11

+13

+11

+8

+47

+32

-4

-9

-25

-16

-28

-8

+8

+1

+12

+9

+5

-15

-15

-19

-17

 

30 Mar -2 April

Q4. Who is your preferred Prime Minister, … (PM) or … (Opposition Leader)?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

 

May 2004

May 2005

May 2006

May 2007

May 2008

May 2009

May 2010

May 2011 

May 2012

May 2013

May 2014

May 2015

May 2016

May 2017

May
2018

April 2019

May

2019

30 Mar-2 April

20-23 April

4-7 May

15-18 May

%

Howard (PM)
Latham

Howard (PM)
Beazley

Howard (PM)
Beazley

Howard (PM)
Rudd

Nelson
Rudd (PM)

Turnbull
Rudd (PM)

Abbott
Rudd (PM)

Abbott

Gillard (PM)

Abbott
Gillard (PM)

Abbott
Gillard (PM)

Abbott (PM)
Shorten

Abbott (PM)
Shorten

Turnbull (PM)
Shorten

Turnbull (PM)
Shorten

Turnbull (PM)
Shorten

Morrison (PM)
Shorten

Morrison (PM)
Shorten

Morrison (PM)
Albanese

Morrison (PM)
Albanese

Morrison (PM) Albanese

Morrison (PM) Albanese

PM

47

52

54

43

17

28

53

44

50

46

40

44

51

47

52

46

47

37

38

36

39

Opposition leader

43

38

34

51

70

64

38

47

42

46

51

39

29

35

32

35

40

38

40

41

42

 

Q. MAY3 Regardless of who you will vote for, who do you think will win the next Federal election?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

 

30 Sep - 1 Oct 1998*

7-8 Nov 2001*

5-7 Oct 2004*

19-21 Nov 2007*

17-19 Aug 2010*

4-5 Sep 2013*

28-30 June 2016

12-15 May 2019

30 Mar-
2 April

20-23 April

4-7 May

15-18 May

Coalition

42

49

67

22

22

81

61

32

28

34

30

28

Labor

31

36

20

64

64

12

17

55

49

42

47

52

Other/
Don’t know

27

15

13

14

14

8

22

13

22

24

23

19

All trend data prior to October 2014 is Nielsen Poll data.

Context to the data

Ipsos Issues Monitor

The current poll findings showing Labor ahead of the Coaliton is supported by data from the May 2022 Ipsos Issues Monitor[3], an ongoing survey of Australia’s community concerns, which has found that:

  • cost of living is the greatest concern facing Australians (52%), the highest level on this issue since the Ipsos Issues Monitor commenced in 2010. This is significantly higher than the same period in May 2019 (34%) prior to the last federal election.
  • The other top issues facing currently Australia are all higher than the same period in May 2019 – healthcare (39% compared to 36% in 2019), housing (34% compared to 22% in 2019) and the economy (33% compared to 24% in 2019).
  • Compared to 2019, Labor is now seen to be more capable of managing cost of living and housing, with healthcare remaining an ALP strength although the gap has narrowed.
  • Management of the economy remains a Coalition strength, however a significant increase in the perceived capability of Labor has occurred compared to the same period in May 2019 (30% compared to 24%).

Top issues:

 

May 2022 top issues compared to same period in 2019

Most capable to manage issue

(%)

May 2019

May 2022

Coalition – May ‘19

Labor – May ‘19

Coalition -  May ‘22

Labor – May ‘22

Cost of Living

34%

52%

32%

27%

28%

32%

Healthcare

36%

39%

29%

35%

30%

32%

Housing

22%

34%

26%

29%

28%

29%

The Economy

24%

33%

40%

24%

36%

30%

Synthesio

Online discussion, collected via Ipsos Social Listening platform Synthesio, shows that:

  • Over the past 30 days, there has been more online discussion about the Liberal government, compared to Labor.
  • The sentiment of this discussion has been more positive for Labor (11% positive; 32% negative) than Liberal (7% positive; 40% negative).
  • Scott Morrison has consistently dominated conversation (receiving close to 463,000 mentions in the past 30 days, compared to 321,000 for Albanese), however the tone of conversation is more likely to be negative than discussion of Albanese.
  • Discussion of Labor held marginal seats is more prevalent than within Coalition held marginal seats, with discussion about Scott Morrison leading discussion amongst both.

[1] When compared to the previous poll undertaken 4-7 May 2022

[2] Certain to vote are respondents who selected code 10 at the question ‘On a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you are “absolutely certain to vote” and 1 means that you are “absolutely certain not to vote”, how likely are you to vote at the Federal Election on Saturday 21st May, 2022?’

[3]  https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/ipsos-issues-monitor

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