Ipsos National Poll Report

Key findings

Voting Intention

• Two-party preferred vote, based on 2019 election preference flows:
  • Including undecided voters: Labor 52% (up 2 points[1]), Coalition 40% (down 2 points) and those undecided 7% (down 1 point).
  • Excluding undecided voters: Labor 57% (up 2 points) and Coalition 43% (down 2 points).
• First preferences: Labor is on 35% (up 1 point), Coalition is on 29% (down 3 points) and those undecided is 7% (down 1 point).

Leadership

• Prime Minister Morrison’s approval rating is 32% (down 2 points), and his disapproval rating is 51% (up 3 points). This gives Mr Morrison a combined rating of NET minus 19 points.
• Opposition leader Albanese’s approval rating is 30% (down 1 point), and his disapproval rating is 36% (up 1 point) for a combined rating of NET minus 6 points.
• 36% prefer Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister (down 2 points); 41% prefer Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister (up 1 point). 

Interest rates

• The global economy (33%), the pandemic (17%), the government (16%) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (16%) are seen as most responsible for contributing toward the rise in interest rates. 

Perceived outcome

• 47% believe Labor will win this election; 30% believe the Coalition will remain in office.

Voting intention

Two party preferred figures were calculated using the standard Ipsos model. This model takes first preference responses, adds those leaning toward a particular party, and calculates preferences for minor parties based on actual preference flows from the 2019 election.

The two party preferred estimate shows Labor (52%, up 2 points) leading the Coalition (40%, down 2 points) with 7% (down 1 point) of Australians saying they are currently undecided.

When undecided voters are excluded, the two-party preferred figures (based on 2019 preference flows) show Labor leading the Coalition 57% to 43% (a 2 point rise for the ALP, and a 2 point drop for the Coalition). 

The national poll of 2,311 respondents, interviewed from 4-7 May 2022. The poll had a credibility interval (the error margin associated with the effective sample size for the research) of =+/-2.1%.

The Coalition’s first preference vote is 29%, with Labor on 35%. The Greens’ primary vote is 12%, One Nation is on 4%, United Australia Party is on 3%, others are on 10% and 7% say they currently do not know which party they will vote for. With electoral rolls now closed, those currently unenrolled were excluded.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is 32% (down 2 points), and his disapproval rating is 51% (up 3 points). The proportion stating they ‘neither approve nor disapprove’ or ‘don’t know’ remains at 18%. This gives a negative balance of opinion of -19.

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is 30% (down 1 point), with a disapproval rating of 36% (up 1 point). This gives a negative balance of opinion (-6). This places him in a better position than Bill Shorten (-15) at the same stage of the 2019 election campaign.

Further, a third of voters (34%) are still to form a clear opinion of Albanese’s performance saying they neither approve nor disapprove or do not know, compared to one in five (18%) who say the same of Morrison.

Voters preference for Prime Minister is becoming clearer; 36% say they prefer Scott Morrison (down 2 points), and 41% prefer Anthony Albanese (up 1 point). This places Albanese significantly ahead of Bill Shorten’s position at the same stage of the 2019 campaign (41% Albanese, compared to 35% Shorten in 2019).

Rising interest rates

Voters cite a range of contributing factors to the rising interest rates; 33% mention the global economy, 17% the pandemic, 16% the government, and 16% the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Coalition voters (43%) are significantly more likely than others to feel that the wider global economy is most responsible for rising interest rates. In contrast, Labor and Green voters are significantly more likely to say the government is responsible (20% and 21% responsible, compared to only 6% of Coalition voters).

[1] When compared to the previous poll undertaken 30 March to 2 April 2022