Ipsos Predictions 2020

Australians have carried through a somewhat gloomy view of 2019 to their vision for 2020, according to Ipsos’ annual Predictions study.

The survey (conducted in late November and early December 2019) looks at a range of issues including world affairs, society and culture, and technology, comparing respondents’ current views to the previous year where possible.

This year’s study has revealed that Australians ended 2019 in a more negative frame of mind than in 2018:

• The proportion of Australians surveyed who described 2019 as a ‘bad year’ for the nation was significantly up - from 50% in 2018 to 61% for 2019
• The number of Australians who believe there will be large-scale public unrest (such as protests or riots) against the way the country is being run also jumped from 39% in 2018 to 47% in 2019
• Views that the coming year (2020) will be better than the previous year (2019) were also down – 74% felt 2020 would be a better year for them; however, in 2018, 81% predicted 2019 would be better
• Nearly half (46%) described 2019 as a ‘bad year for me and my family’, up from 42% in 2018.

Australia’s top predictions for 2020

1. People worldwide will spend more time online than watching TV (75% likely)
2. Average global temperatures will increase (70% likely)
3. Traffic in the area where I live will get worse (67% likely)
4. I will watch more TV from streaming services than from free-to-air/cable/satellite TV channels (51%)
5. There will be large-scale public unrest (such as protests or riots) in Australia (47% likely)

Unlikely outcomes for 2020

Australians believe it is least likely that aliens will visit the earth - 71% of those surveyed felt this was unlikely to happen in 2020, compared to 66% overall within the 33 global markets polled.

The other most unlikely events for Australians were:

1. I will use social media less (62% unlikely)
2. Self-driving cars will become a usual sight on the streets of my town/city (62% unlikely)
3. I will feel lonely most of the time (62% unlikely)
4. Women will be paid the same as men for the same work (54% unlikely).

Global predictions: most likely to occur in 2020

• Globally, 77% of people believe temperatures will increase. Interestingly, Australians were among the least likely to hold this view, although it is still widely-held (70%)
• 36% of people think it is likely that major stock markets around the world will crash. Australians believe it is a little more likely (40%)
• People are unsure about Donald Trump’s chances of being re-elected as US president – 35% think it is likely, while 44% think it is unlikely. Australians reflected global views, with 34% and 43% respectively
• A third (32%) of people think a major terrorist attack will happen in their country in 2020; Australians were a little higher at 36%
• Just less than a third (30%) expect a major natural disaster will impact people in their area. Again, Australians were a little higher at 34%.

Ipsos Australia Director, David Elliott, said: “While Australians’ predictions were often in line with global views, it’s clear the Australians we surveyed viewed 2019 more negatively than 2018, and this negativity flowed through to predictions for 2020.

“The negativity around 2019 was not unexpected. The Global Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index for Australia dropped steadily throughout 2019, as much of the country is battling drought conditions, and what looks to be our worst-ever bushfire season began in September and still rages on.

“We even saw a major shift in our Ipsos Issues Monitor in 2019. Traditionally, we see cost of living, healthcare and the economy battle it out for top spot in regard to what Australians feel is the most important issue facing the nation. However, concern about the environment has been rising steadily since mid-2017 and throughout 2019, it began to rise sharply, eventually taking out the top spot.  So while the bushfire crisis continues, so too does debate about the role of climate change in this year’s devastating bushfire season. What is clear is that Australians are a little unhappy at the moment and one of the key things they are looking for is leadership on climate change.”

Methodology:

• 22,512 interviews were conducted between November 22 and December 6, 2019, among adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other countries
• The survey was conducted in 33 markets around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. These include Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the US.
• 17 of the 32 countries surveyed online generate nationally representative samples in their countries. Brazil, Chile, China, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa and Turkey produce a national sample that is more urban and educated, and with higher incomes than their fellow citizens. We refer to these respondents as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens”.  They are not nationally representative of their country.
• Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or not stated responses.
• This study did not have any external sponsors or partners. It was initiated and run by Ipsos, because we are curious about the world we live in, and how citizens around the globe think and feel about their world.