Issues Monitor December 2013: National
Top Issues Facing Australia
While it’s too early to tell whether we’re witnessing a new paradigm of concern (‘Healthcare’ and ‘Cost of Living’ are the only other issues to ever reach number one with ‘Healthcare’ historically dominating the top spot), what we do know is that strong economic management is where the Abbott government could demonstrate their value – or expose their vulnerability – during this first term. Whether in Opposition or Government, the Australian public has decisively nominated the Coalition as most capable to manage ‘The Economy’ each and every month of 2013 relative to the ALP, with our December poll reporting that Australians believe the Coalition 1.7 times more capable than the ALP. Economic management is generally a natural strength of any Coalition government; presenting both an opportunity to perform and a risk, given it’s expected you will perform.
The Coalition’s capacity to deliver their promise of a stronger 21st century Australia so that all Australians can get ahead in the global economy, live in a better country and have a better future will of course depend a great deal on global conditions. However, perhaps it is the Coalition’s ability to strike balance between short-to-medium term popular and pragmatic decisions to look after trade exposed industries – such as the automotive, retail and textile sectors – all the while actively investing in the inevitable transition towards a broad based service and knowledge economy that will really be a mark of their success.
Blaming the other guy may work to lower expectations but it’s an old trick, one the Australian public are used to and, if the discourse in the lead up to this most recent election is anything to go by, a tactic we’re all absolutely sick of. Psychologically, a New Year brings with it new hope, a chance to refresh. Let’s hope the Coalition and Opposition take this opportunity with both hands on the wheel and both eyes on the future.
Top Issues Facing Victoria
The State Government continues to trade on its economic credentials in an environment where Victorians continue to be concerned about ‘Unemployment’.
When the Coalition Government took office in late November 2010, Victoria’s unemployment rate was a shade north of five percent and trending downwards, having bounced (on national trend) to six percent in mid-2009 in the wake of a broad-based economic contraction.
Elections are fought on the issues of the day. The thrust of the debate in 2010 focused on addressing Victorians’ acute concerns around community safety, transport investment and transport network [JB1] reliability. Ostensibly[JB2] , discussion around job security and future economy took a back seat.
The issue-winds were such that whoever took office actually had the opportunity to respond to citizens’ concerns. And the Coalition did just that, changing sentencing laws, electing to build additional prisons, employing more police to walk-the-beat and protective services officers to patrol train stations. In this instance, Victorian Government policy heavily influenced the narrative around law and order – resulting in a valve-release from absolute acute anxiety to its current status: high level of concern (second most important issue facing Victoria, on trend with the balance of Australia).
Problematically for the Victorian Government, it is likely that debate in the lead up to the 2014 election will focus on unemployment, job security and future economy, areas where State Government policy contributes to – but does not control – the narrative. There are broader forces at play. And, given narrative informs citizen sentiment, this Government will need to work very hard to ensure that Victoria does not lose its AAA credit rating. Victoria continues to be the only Australian state with AAA status. The troublesome task for this government is demonstrating the tangibles, communicating the value of AAA, how this rating is having a positive impact in a way that is relevant for all Victorians. Does AAA mean ‘better services faster’, does AAA mean ‘I will keep my job’? Without an increase in GSP, or sustained drop in unemployment, the immediate currency of AAA is to use it as a positive point of difference relative to other states. To lose AAA would deliver the Opposition a credible free-kick to question the cornerstone of this Government’s policy agenda.
Further, the Government will need to work hard on its messaging around unemployment. Will the news that Victoria has the second lowest unemployment rate of any state bring any comfort if absolute unemployment within the state continues to rise? We tend to only look over the fence when the grass is greener and, given this, internal relativity can be king on such measures.
With less than twelve months until Victorians go to the polls, both the Government and Opposition will be campaigning in a very different environment relative to 2010.
