Issues Monitor September 2013: National
Top issues facing Australia
Given this stability, identifying and addressing public concern regarding that next cluster of most important – but more changeable issues – namely ‘The Economy’ and ‘Immigration’ – is where the Abbott government could demonstrate their value, or expose their vulnerability, during this first term. While discourse in the lead up to this most recent election confirmed a level of apathy towards the process and politicians themselves, the Australian public firmly believes that the Liberal-National coalition are best placed to address these important concerns; specifically 1.7 times more capable than the ALP to manage ‘The Economy’ and 1.9 times more capable to manage ‘Immigration’.
While the Government has already made moves to demonstrate that it is in control of our borders through renaming the Department of Immigration and Citizenship to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection and by making moves to adjust the reporting of boat arrivals, Australians’ concern about ‘Immigration’ actually peaked three months before polling day, with anxieties receding in each of July, August and September 2013.
Conversely, Australians anxieties around ‘The Economy’ came to the fore during the election campaign. The Coalition Government’s capacity to deliver their promise of a stronger 21st century Australia so that all Australians can get ahead in the global economy, live in a better country and have a better future will depend somewhat on global conditions and their willingness to strike balance between short-to-medium term popular and pragmatic decisions to look after trade exposed industries – such as the automotive, retail and textile sectors – all the while actively investing in the inevitable – our transition to a broad based service and knowledge economy.
Top issues facing Victoria
The State Government continues to trade on its economic credentials in an environment where Victorians are increasingly concerned about unemployment.
When the Coalition Government took office in late November 2010, Victoria’s unemployment rate was a shade north of five percent and trending downwards, having bounced (on national trend) to six percent in mid-2009 in the wake of a broad-based economic contraction.
Elections are fought on the issues of the day. The thrust of the debate in 2010 focused on addressing Victorians’ acute concerns around community safety, transport investment and network reliability. Sensibly, discussion around job security and future economy took a back seat. The issue-winds were such that whoever took office actually had the opportunity to respond to citizens’ concerns. And the Coalition did just that, changing sentencing laws, electing to build additional prisons, employing more police to walk-the-beat and protective services officers to patrol train stations. In this instance,
Victorian Government policy heavily influenced the narrative around law and order – resulting in a valve-release from acute anxiety to its current status: high level of concern (3rd most important issue facing Victoria). Problematically for the Victorian Government, it is likely that debate in the lead up to the 2014 election will focus on unemployment, job security and future economy, areas where State Government policy contributes to – but does not control – the narrative. There are broader forces at play. And, given narrative that informs citizen sentiment, this Government will need to work very hard to ensure:
That Victoria does not lose its AAA credit rating. Victoria continues to be the only Australian state with AAA status. The troublesome task for this government is demonstrating the tangibles, to communicate how this rating is having a positive impact now and in such a manner that is relevant for all Victorians – does this mean ‘better services faster’, does this mean ‘I will keep my job’? Without an increase in GSP, or sustained drop in unemployment, the immediate currency of such a rating is using it as a positive point of difference relative to other states. To lose AAA would deliver the Opposition a credible free-kick to question the cornerstone of this government’s policy agenda.
Further, the Government will need to work hard on its messaging around unemployment. Will the news that Victoria has the second lowest unemployment rate of any state bring any comfort if absolute unemployment within the state continues to rise? We tend to only look over the fence when the grass is greener and, given this, internal relativity can be king on such measures.
With a little over twelve months until Victorians go to the polls, both the Government and Opposition will be campaigning in a very different environment relative to 2010.
