Just one in five Australians believes the Australian economy will fully recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021

Nine in 10 Australians (92%), agree that 2020 was a bad year for their country, ahead of the global average of 90%, and 68% report that 2020 was a bad year for themselves and their family.

The annual Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions Survey was conducted in late 2020 and looks at people’s perceptions of what the coming year might bring.  This 2021 Predictions Survey covered more than 20,000 men and women across 31 countries. In Australia, 1,000 people aged 18–74 participated in the survey and expressed their views.

Key findings

General outlook for 2021

• The majority of Australians agree that 2020 was a bad year for the country (92%) and for themselves and their family (68%), just ahead of the global average of 90%.  New Zealanders were slightly more positive at 86% and 61% respectively.
• Unsurprisingly both measures here and globally were significantly higher than previous years, for example, in 2019 the Australian figures were 61% 2019 was a bad year for the country and 46% for themselves and their family.
• Whilst people in Australia and around the world overwhelmingly agree that 2020 was a bad year, the majority are optimistic that 2021 will be a better year (82% Australia; 77% global). This is very much in line with the level of optimism we have seen in previous years.

COVID-19

• One in five (19%) Australians anticipates that the Australian economy will fully recover in 2021, compared to 32% globally; and 25% in New Zealand. Compared to other countries, Australians and New Zealanders have relatively higher levels of scepticism regarding the rate of economic recovery.
• Australians (37%) and New Zealanders (30%) were also among the least likely to predict that mask-wearing will be prevalent in public places a year from now (61% globally).
• Just over six in 10 Australians (62%) believe that a COVID-19 vaccine will become widely available in Australia in 2021, in line with the global average but much higher than New Zealand (48%).

The Economy

• Half of Australians (51%) and New Zealanders (50%) think it is likely that income inequality in their country will increase (compared to 66% globally).
• Both Australians and New Zealanders are less optimistic about the gender pay gap declining – just 36% and 32% respectively believe that pay equity is likely in 2021 (40% globally).
• In terms of shopping habits, just under half of Australians (46%) and New Zealanders (48%) say they are likely to spend more money online versus in-store (57% globally).

Society

• While Australians were the same as the global average (29%) regarding our tolerance of each other, there was higher optimism amongst New Zealanders, with 44% believing in 2021 Kiwis will become more tolerant of each other.
• Australians (40%) and New Zealanders (48%) are among the most likely to believe that the police will treat all people equally, regardless of differences (33% globally).

Technology

• Cyber security is not a major concern for Australians (33%) or New Zealanders (29%), with around three in 10 believing that one of their online accounts will be hacked in 2021 (compared to 34% globally).
• 15% of Australians and 14% of New Zealanders believe that human cloning will be legalised in some countries in 2021 – globally, 21% believe this to be likely.

Global Threats

• The majority of Australians (69%) and New Zealanders (71%) anticipate an increase in average global temperatures in 2021 (compared to 75% globally).

Commenting on the 2021 Predictions Survey, Ipsos Public Affairs Deputy Managing Director, David Elliott, said: “There’s no doubt people were happy to see the end of 2020, particularly as many Australians had a disappointing end to the year due to fresh outbreaks of the virus in Sydney. We saw a large jump in the proportions of Australians agreeing that 2020 was a bad year for themselves and their family - up 22 points to 68%, as well as the country - up 31 points to 92%. However, when we asked Australians what they thought 2021 would bring, there is a mix of optimism and concern. Most people are optimistic that it will be better on the whole, but only a 19% think Australia’s economy will completely recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Our concern about the economy may well be heightened by the recent trade tensions between China and Australia.

“The other key result where we stand out globally, along with the Kiwis, is our much lower belief that mask wearing will become the norm.  This doesn’t so much reflect a greater optimism on our part, but rather it reflects our reality to this point, whereas for many others around the world it has been a reality and seems likely to continue.”

About the Study

This study did not have any external sponsors or partners. It was initiated and run by Ipsos, because we are curious about the world we live in and how citizens around the globe think and feel about their world.

These are the results of a 31-market survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online platform. Ipsos interviewed a total of 23,007 adults aged 21–74 in Singapore, 18–74 in the United States, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, Malaysia, South Africa, and Turkey, and 16–74 in 22 other markets between October 23 and November 6, 2020. New Zealand Fieldwork dates: October 16–19, 2020.

The sample consists of approximately 1,000 individuals in each of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, mainland China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Spain, New Zealand, and the U.S., and 500 individuals in each of Argentina, Chile, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

The samples in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, New Zealand, and the U.S. can be taken as representative of their general adult population under the age of 75.

The samples in Brazil, Chile, mainland China, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population. The survey results for these markets should be viewed as reflecting the views of the more “connected” segment of their population.

Sample surveys and polls may be subject to sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the online surveys conducted is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the Australian results have a credibility interval of +/-3.5 percentage points.