Labor maintain their lead - Fairfax Ipsos Poll

Key Findings

• Two-party vote, based on stated preferences: Labor 52% (down 1 point since May), Coalition 48% (up 1 point since May)
• Two-party vote, based on 2016 election preferences:  Labor 53% (unchanged since May), Coalition 47% (unchanged since May)
• First preferences:  Labor 34% (down 1 point since May), Coalition 35% (down 2 points since May)
• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 42% (down 3 points since May), and disapproval at 47% (up 3 points since May).
• Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 36% (down 6 points since May), and disapproval at 52% (up 5 points since May).
• 48% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as the Prime Minister (up 1 points since May); 31% prefer Bill Shorten (down 4 points since May)
• Scott Morrison’s approval rating is 42%, and disapproval is 38%.
• Scott Morrison is considered the preferred Treasurer by 38%, with 29% mentioning Chris Bowen.
• 39% believe the Coalition is the party with the best policies for managing the economy; 28% believe Labor has the best economic policies
• 56% believe Malcolm Turnbull has provided better economic leadership as Prime Minister; 25% prefer Tony Abbot’s economic leadership.

Voting Intention

The Labor Party remains ahead of the Coalition in the September Fairfax Ipsos Poll.

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, interviewed from 6-9 September 2017, shows the Labor party on 53% (unchanged since May), with the Coalition on 47% (also unchanged since May), based on 2016 election preferences.  This indicates a 3.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election.

The two-party stated preference vote shows a lead for the Labor party of 52% (down 1 point since May) and the Coalition on 48% (up 1 point since May).

First preference votes put Labor on 34% (down 1 point since May) and the Coalition on 35% (down 2 points since May).   The Greens have 14% (up 1 point since May), One Nation is on 1% and others are on 15% (up 2 points since May).

7% of respondents are undecided.  These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is sitting at 42% (down 3 points since May); his disapproval rating is 47% (up 3 points since May).  This gives a net approval of -5 (down 6 points since May). 

Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 36% (down 6 points since May) and his disapproval rating is 52% (up 5 points since May).  This gives a net approval of -16 (down 11 points since May). 

Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister, at 48%, a rise of 1 point since May; 31% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (a fall of 4 points since May).

Approval of Treasurer

On balance, the public approve of Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer; 42% approve of how he is doing his job, with 38% disapproving.  This gives a positive balance of opinion of +4; 29 points higher than how Joe Hockey was rated as Treasurer in April 2015.

This balance of opinion increases to +55 among Coalition voters (with 69% approving and only 14% disapproving).

These positive ratings are reflected when the public are asked to consider who is their preferred Treasurer, with 38% preferring Scott Morrison and 29% saying Chris Bowen.  A third either don’t know (29%) or mention another name (4%).

The Coalition remains the party thought to have the best policies for managing the Australian economy; 38% compared to 28% who believe Labor have better economic policies.  The Coalition are seen as having the better policies for managing the economy, irrespective of household income.

When considering the economic leadership provided as Prime Minister, twice as many people consider Malcolm Turnbull (56%) to be a better economic leader than Tony Abbott (25%).  This remains the case among Coalition voters (Malcolm Turnbull 58%, Tony Abbott 30%).

Questions

Q.1a If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held today, which party would receive your first preference vote?

Q.1b [IF UNDECIDED] Which party do you have a leaning towards at present?

Q.1c [IF MINOR PARTY SUPPORT] At the Federal Election you will be required to vote for all candidates in your electorate in order of preference. Given this, will you give a higher preference to the Labor Party candidate or the Liberal/National Party candidate?

Q.2 How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister? Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of his performance?

Q.3 How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Bill Shorten as Opposition Leader? Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of his performance?

Q.4 Who is your preferred Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten?

Q.SEP1 How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Scott Morrison as Treasurer?

Q.SEP2 Who is your preferred Federal Treasurer?  Scott Morrison or Chris Bowen.

Q.SEP3 Which political party do you think has the best policies for managing the Australian economy?

Q.SEP4 Thinking about how Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull have each performed as Prime Minister, which do you think has provided better economic leadership for Australia?

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 6-9 September 2017

Sample size: 1,400 respondents

Sample: National, aged 18+, 31% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.

Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.

Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample

Analysis: The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.