Majority of voters think the coalition will win the election

A majority of voters (53%) currently think that the Coalition will win the forthcoming Federal Election; a quarter (24%) think Labor will win, and 22% say they ‘don’t know’, according to the latest Fairfax Ipsos Poll released today.

Voters are also unconvinced by the Federal Budget delivered by the Treasurer, Scott Morrison, last Tuesday, however the Coalition is still ahead of Labor.

The national poll 1,410 respondents, interviewed from 5-7 May 2016, found that 39% of Australians are satisfied with the budget and 46% are dissatisfied, with 15% say they ‘don’t know’. This gives a balance of opinion of -7.

“These figures compare poorly to those for previous budgets with only Joe Hockey’s 2014 budget and Peter Costello’s 1997 budget receiving lower satisfaction ratings,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

Despite the figures, the Coalition has 51% of the two-party preferred vote (up 1 point since April), ahead of the Labor Party on 49% (down 1 point since April), based on 2013 election preferences. This indicates a -2.5% swing against the Coalition Government since the September 2013 Federal election.

Key findings

• Satisfaction with the Federal Budget: 37% say the Budget was fair, and 43% disagree, giving a net figure of -6. The only budget rated as less fair was the Hockey budget of 2014 (-30). Twenty-four per cent say they will personally be better off because of the Budget; 39% say they’ll be worse off.
• Voting intentions: Two-party vote, based on stated preferences: Coalition 50% (down 1 point since April) and the Labor Party also 50% (up 1 point since April). First preferences: Coalition 44% (up 2 points since April), Labor 33% (unchanged since April)
• Leaders’ approval ratings: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval at 48% (down 3 points since April), disapproval at 40% (up 2 points since April), net approval at +8 (down 5 points since April). This compares to his rating of +51 in October 2016. Bill Shorten’s approval at 38% (up 5 points since April), disapproval at 49% (down 6 points since April), net approval at -11 (up 11 points since April).

Who will win the election?

A majority of voters (53%) currently think that the Coalition will win the forthcoming Federal Election; a quarter (24%) think Labor will win, and 22% say they ‘don’t know’. 73% of Coalition voters think that their preferred party will win.

The table below shows how these figures compare to the final poll taken before the previous six Federal elections.

*Final Nielsen Polls before the 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013 elections

Satisfaction with the Federal Budget

The 2016 budget received significantly higher satisfaction among men (44%) than women (35%).

Sixty-two per cent of Coalition voters are satisfied with the 2016 Federal Budget; a significantly lower rating than was given to the 2015 budget (78% satisfied). It was poorly received by Opposition voters with only 21% of Labor voters satisfied with the Budget, and only 24% of Greens voters satisfied.

High income voters (with an annual household income of more than $100,000) are significantly more satisfied than those on lower incomes, with 47% saying they are satisfied with this year’s Federal budget.

Thirty-seven per cent say the Budget is fair, and 43% disagree – with one in five voters (21%) not expressing an opinion. This gives a negative balance of opinion of -6. The only budget rated as less fair is the 2014 Hockey budget, which was rated at -30.

The majority of Coalition voters perceive the budget as fair, at 62%. While positive, this is a significant fall from last year’s figure of 81% among Coalition voters. The majority of voters currently intending to vote Labor or Greens see the budget as unfair (66% and 59% unfair, respectively). Those voters most likely to see it as fair were male (42%), older voters aged 55+ (45%) and those earning a household income of over $100,000 per annum (44%).

A quarter (24%) believe they will be better off as a consequence of this year’s Budget, with 39% saying they will be worse off. A quarter (24%) says it will make no difference and one in eight (13%) ‘don’t know’.

Those on lower annual household incomes (below $40,000) are more likely than other voters to say they believe they’ll be personally worse off after this Budget (45% worse off, compared to 41% among those earning between $40,000-$100,000, and 33% among those earning over $100,000).

Voting intentions

The Coalition has 51% of the two-party preferred vote (up 1 point since April), ahead of the Labor Party on 49% (down 1 point since April), based on 2013 election preferences. This indicates a -2.5% swing against the Coalition Government since the September 2013 Federal election.

The two-party stated preference vote shows the Coalition and Labor Party with equal shares of the vote, both at 50%. This is a fall of 1 point for the Coalition, and a rise of 1 point for the Labor Party since April.

First preference votes put the Coalition on 44% (up 2 points since April) and the Labor Party on 33% (unchanged since April). The Greens are on 14% (unchanged since April). Others are on 9% (down 1 point since April).

Ten per cent of respondents are undecided. These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 48% (down 3 points since April), and his disapproval rating is 40% (up 2 points since April). This gives a net approval of +8; a fall of 5 points from last month’s figure of +13, and a fall of 43 points since his first rating as Prime Minister in October 2015 of +51.

However, the table below shows how Turnbull’s current approval ratings compare favourably to those of both Abbott and Gillard following their budgets.

Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 38% (up 5 points since April). His disapproval rating is 49% (down 6 points since April). This gives a net approval of -11 (up 11 points since April). This is Shorten’s best rating since Turnbull became Prime Minister.

Malcolm Turnbull is the preferred Prime Minister, at 51%, a decrease of 3 points since April, while 29% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (a rise of 2 points since April).

Poll Profile
Fieldwork dates: 5-7 May 2016
Sample size: 1,410 respondents
Sample: National, aged 18+. 33% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.
Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis: The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.