One year on, most don’t see an end to the pandemic before the end of 2021 – if at all - but Australia bucks the trend

Australians are the least concerned among eight countries about the threat posed by COVID-19 to our country, their jobs and their personal safety, and are the most positive about the virus outbreak being contained, a new Ipsos survey reveals.

As the world marks one year of living with COVID-19, an analysis of Ipsos tracking data from eight countries examines how perceptions of the virus have changed since the beginning of the pandemic. In a separate Ipsos study conducted in December 2020, many around the world are reporting the negative impact of the pandemic on mental wellbeing and loneliness.

COVID-19 One Year On

Key Australian Findings

When comparing the findings from Ipsos’ survey on February  7-10 2021 to those of January 28-31 2020, the key findings for Australia are:

• We are the least concerned about the threat posed by COVID-19 (threat to the country, self and your job/business);
• We are the only country showing a decrease in the proportion of people that see COVID-19 as a high threat to the country (down 10 points to 29%);
• We are unchanged in our beliefs about the personal threat of COVID-19, whereas the other seven countries show a marked increase;
• We do show an increase in concern for jobs or business (up 21 points to 28%) but this is much lower than other countries;
• We are the only country showing an increase in those agreeing the outbreak has been contained and will soon be over (up 5 points to 24%);
• We are in line with most of the other countries regarding the belief the virus will be contained within several months (24%).

Global Findings

COVID-19 as a national threat

In all eight countries surveyed, more people think of COVID-19 as a “high” or “very high” threat to their country than to their job or business or to themselves personally.

• As of now, the United Kingdom (76%), Japan (72%), and France (72%) are the countries whose citizens are most concerned about the threat COVID-19 poses to their nation, followed by the United States (64%), Canada (61%), Germany (59%), Russia (48%), and Australia (29%).
• Compared to one year ago, the view that the pandemic is endangering one’s country has gained the most ground in the U.K. (+57 percentage points), France (+50), Canada (+44), and Germany (+43).
• Year-over-year, perceptions of the virus as a national threat have not grown as much in the U.S. (+31), Japan (+23), and Russia (+22), and have receded in Australia (-10) – the four countries where they were highest a year ago.

• Among the eight countries surveyed, the U.K. is the only one where the perception of COVID as a threat to the nation is close to its pandemic record – only 3 points lower than in late March-early April 2020 and higher than at any time since then. By contrast, in Australia, it is now 45 points lower today than in late March. Elsewhere, it is about 15 points lower than at its peak in March or April. However, it is now at its highest in Germany (last peak in April) and in France (previous high in early November).

COVID-19 as a personal threat

In almost all countries, more feel personally threatened by COVID-19 today than they did a year ago. However, citizens viewing the pandemic as a “high” or “very high” threat to themselves do not make up a majority in any of the eight countries surveyed.

• Concern about one’s personal safety is highest in Japan (43%), where it has grown the most (+27 points).
• It is lowest in Australia (15%), where it is exactly at the same level as one year ago.
• In all six other countries, perceptions of COVID-19 as a threat are in the 26%-34% range, about 20 points higher than a year ago.

• Since peaking in March-April 2020, concern about COVID as a personal threat has receded the most in Australia (down 21 points) and France (down 16). In other countries, it is down by 5 to 11 points since that time. However, it is now at its highest since early May both in the U.K and Japan. In Russia, it is now 8 points lower than during the country’s second peak in mid-December.

COVID-19 as a threat to one’s job or business

Perceptions of COVID-19 as a threat to one’s job or business are more prevalent today in every single country than they were a year ago.

• Concern about COVID putting one’s livelihood at risk ranges from 45% in Japan and 40% in the U.S to 29% in Canada and 28% in Australia.
• It shows a year-on-year increase of 19 to 29 points in all countries surveyed except Australia (+11).

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• In all countries, the perception that COVID is a threat to one's job or business peaked in March or April 2020, although it cested a second time in mid-December in Russia. Compared to its pandemic high, it is down most in Australia (-26), Canada (-23), and France (-21). Elsewhere, it is now only 10 to 15 points lower.

Expectations for the future

Not many people believe the virus is contained, dampening expectations for the future.

• In nearly all countries, the share of people who believe the coronavirus pandemic will soon be over is lower now than a year ago, ranging from 24% in Australia and Russia to just 15% in Canada and Japan. This is true for all countries, except for Australia, where more people now believe the pandemic will be over soon, and the United States, where it is unchanged.

Looking ahead, people are not optimistic about the timeline for the pandemic. Large majorities in all countries still feel it will be at least until the second half of 2021 before it’s contained – if ever.

• Those who expect the virus to be contained within the next six months range from 30% in the U.S., 25% in Germany, and 24% in Australia to just 7% in Japan.
• More than one-third in Japan (37%) and about one-quarter in France (26%) and Australia (24%) believe COVID-19 will never be contained.

Ipsos Australia Director, David Elliott, said: “It is not surprising to see Australian perceptions differing to those of the other seven countries in the study.  Throughout 2020 we saw a much smaller impact from COVID in terms of Australian’s health, the health system, jobs and the economy when compared to most countries around the globe. Our relative success in controlling the spread of the virus has meant that we start 2021 in a much better frame of mind than most around the globe.  The other thing to keep in mind is that concern has been building around the world since September/October 2020, whereas in Australia we saw a second peak in concern around August/September followed by a slow downward trend.

“Ultimately the Australian results reflect the success of our Federal and State Governments, businesses, and communities in working together to minimise the spread and impact of the virus.”

COVID and Loneliness

This Ipsos global survey of 28 countries shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected mental wellbeing, community support and loneliness around the world.

In Australia the key findings are:

• Two in five (38%) think their local community has become more supportive over the last six months of 2020.
• More people are likely to think COVID-19 has had a negative impact on their mental wellbeing than a positive impact (41% compared with 16%).
• Two in five (40%) report becoming lonelier over the last six months, while one in seven (14%) have become less lonely.

Globally a third of people think their local community has become more supportive.

• Around the world, a third of people agree their local community has become more supportive over the last six months (32%).
• Great Britain is the only European country to feature in the top 10 countries who are most likely to agree their local community has become more supportive: Top are China and India (both 55%), followed by Saudi Arabia (51%), Peru (44%), Chile (43%), Malaysia (43%), Mexico (40%) and GB (39%), Singapore (39%) and Argentina (38%).
• The country with the highest proportion disagreeing that their local community has become more supportive is Turkey, with almost half of people agreeing this is the case (47%). Other countries unlikely to say their community has become more supportive over the last six months are Turkey (17%), Russia (13%) and Japan (10%).

Globally Covid-19 will have a negative impact on people's mental wellbeing

• Globally, people are more likely to say COVID-19 will have a negative impact on their mental wellbeing than a positive impact (40% compared with 22%).
• There are wide differences between countries. Countries where people are most likely to say the pandemic will have a positive impact on their mental wellbeing are Peru (47%), Mexico (44%), India (42%), Saudi Arabia (40%) and Malaysia (36%).
• This contrasts with the following countries where the smallest proportions believe it will have a positive impact: GB (13%), Hungary (12%), Canada (11%), France (11%) and Japan (8%).

Loneliness has increased across the world

• Globally, two in five people (41%) report becoming lonelier over the last six months, while one in five (19%) have become less lonely.
• Countries where the highest proportions of people have become lonelier include: Turkey (54%), Brazil (52%), Belgium (51%), Canada (50%) and Great Britain (49%).
• People in Turkey were also the most likely to disagree their local community has become more supportive over the last 6 months (47%).
• Countries where the smallest proportions of people say they've become lonelier include Malaysia (35%), Poland (34%), Russia (28%), China (26%) and Japan (23%). 

Ipsos Australia Director, David Elliott, said: “The findings of this study are interesting because we sit in the middle on each of these measures, despite the pandemic having much less impact here in Australia.  Perhaps what people are reporting regarding the impact on mental wellbeing and loneliness is a result of the isolation that resulted from the various border closures and shutdowns that have occurred through the pandemic.  What we have seen is families and friends shut off from each other at different times through the year. Further the unpredictability and uncertainty of border closures has compounded the impact, as people weren’t confident about when they would get to see friends and family.”