Outside the U.S. Biden is the clear favourite - Ipsos survey

More than half of Australians (55%) would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden if they would vote, while only 18% would vote for President Donald Trump, according to the latest Ipsos Global Advisor survey. The survey looks at perceptions of the upcoming US Presidential election and shows many similarities to the 2016 election, but also some key differences. It was conducted with more than 18,500 online adults in the U.S. and 24 other countries, from September 25 - October 9.

Key Australian and global findings

• If Australians could vote in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, 55% would cast a ballot for former Vice President Joe Biden, while 18% would choose incumbent President Donald Trump. In 2016, 54% said they would vote for Hillary Clinton and 12% Donald Trump.
• We are not dissimilar to many across the globe - 48% would cast a ballot for former Vice President Joe Biden while 18% would choose incumbent President Donald Trump. In 2016, the global figures were 58% for Hillary Clinton and 12% Donald Trump.

• Beliefs about who will win are very different, particularly in Australia, where only 36% think Joe Biden will win and 32% think President Donald Trump. These 2020 numbers are in stark contrast to 2016 where beliefs about the winner closely reflected voting preference. Back in 2016, 58% thought Hillary Clinton would win, and 17% thought Donald Trump would win.
• Globally, beliefs about the result are also vastly different to 2016. In 2020, 39% believe Joe Biden will win and 27% President Donald Trump, whereas in 2016, 68% had Hillary Clinton winning and 15% had Donald Trump.

• For Australians, the most commonly chosen threats to the upcoming U.S. election were the spreading of fake news about candidates (41%) and efforts to prevent people from voting (32%). Encouragingly, Australians perceived much less threat to elections in Australia, although fake news was still top of the list at 28%.
• Among various threats to the integrity of the upcoming U.S. election, the spreading of fake news is most often mentioned by citizens of other countries (35%). It is also the most widely perceived serious risk in their country’s next major elections (28%).

Ipsos Public Affairs Australia Deputy Managing Director, David Elliott, said from an Australian perspective there are a couple of interesting points:

• The similar levels of support for Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, particularly as the latter would have been far more familiar to people in 2016 than Joe Biden would be in 2020;
• The fact that we seem to have been burnt by the 2016 Presidential election. We are now far more cautious about the result of the election; despite the fact a majority support Joe Biden and we see him with a healthy lead in many polls in the US. Clearly, we keep telling ourselves “but so did Hillary Clinton” and understandably we are less confident in what might happen;
• While we have concerns about factors that could influence this US Presidential election, such as fake news and efforts to prevent people from voting, we are much less likely to believe these factors pose a risk to elections in Australia. Encouragingly, we continue to have a positive view of the integrity of the election process in Australia.

Other Key Global Findings

Biden vs, Trump: How the world would vote

When asked who they would vote for in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, many more adults surveyed in most of 24 countries, not including the United States, say they would vote for Democrat candidate Joe Biden over Republican candidate Donald Trump.

• Globally, 48% say they would vote for Biden, 17% say they would vote for Trump, 26% do not know and 9% prefer not to say.
• Biden leads Trump by 50 percentage points or more in six countries (Sweden, Belgium, Mexico, Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada) and by 30 to 49 points in 10 other countries.
• Only in Poland and Russia does support for Trump equal or outweigh that for Biden.
• Biden is preferred by as many as 73% of those surveyed in Sweden and by only 13% in Russia.
• Trump is preferred by as many as 34% of those surveyed in India and by only 7% in Mexico.
• Averaging the results for all 24 countries surveyed, Biden leads Trump by 31 points, 48% to 17%.
• A similar Ipsos poll conducted before the 2016 Presidential election also found citizens across the world generally preferred Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton to Trump: on average, 58% of people across 22 countries, not including the U.S., would have voted for Clinton, compared to 12% for Trump.

Who the world expects to win

When it comes to who people outside the U.S. expect to win the election, regardless of their preference, 39% across all 24 countries believe Biden will win, 27% think Trump will, 28% don’t know and 6% prefer not to say.

• Biden is most widely expected to win in Mexico (51%) and South Korea (50%); Trump is in Poland (41%), Russia (36%), and India (35%).
• Ahead of the 2016 election, 68% of citizens from 23 countries not including the U.S. expected Clinton to win while only 15% were betting on Trump.

Perceived threats to the U.S. election and the next major elections in their own country

Looking at the integrity of the upcoming U.S. Presidential election, Americans are more likely than people living in other countries to believe this event could be impacted by four factors:

• The spreading of fake news (cited as a serious risk by 45% of Americans vs. 35% of people in 24 other countries);
• Efforts to mis-record, misuse, or destroy valid votes (36% vs. 19%);
• Voter fraud (35% vs. 22%); and
• Efforts to prevent people from voting (34% vs. 20%).

On average, people across the world are more likely to think the upcoming U.S. election is exposed to several specific risks than is the next major election in their country:

• The spreading of fake news (globally cited by 35% as a serious risk in the U.S. vs. 28% as a risk in their country);
• Efforts to prevent people from voting (20% vs. 15%); and
• Interference from a foreign power (16% vs. 12%).

However, other risks are perceived to apply as much or as little to the U.S. as to their country:

• Vote-buying (cited by 22% as a serious risk in the U.S. vs. 23% as a serious risk in their own country);
• Voter fraud or impersonation (22% both);
• Efforts to mis-record, misuse or destroy valid votes (19% vs. 18%); and
• Organisational problems (16% vs. 17%).

Concern that the integrity of the next major election in one’s own country is at risk varies widely:

• Many in the Netherlands (43%), Germany (38%), Australia and Japan (35%), Canada (32%), Belgium (31%), and France (30%) do not think any of these risks could seriously impact the results of their country’s next major election.
• Very few do in Mexico (2%), South Africa (3%), Brazil and Hungary (both 4%), Argentina, India, Malaysia, Peru, Turkey (6%), the United States (8%), and Russia (10%).

About the Study

These are the findings of a 25-country Global Advisor survey conducted on Ipsos’s Online Panel System, September 25 - October 9, 2020 among 18,507 adults aged 18-74 in the United States, Canada, Malaysia, South Africa, and Turkey and 16-74 in all other countries.

The sample consists of approximately 1000+ individuals in each of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain, Sweden, and the U.S., and approximately 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Chile, Hungary, India, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey.

The samples in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the U.S. can be taken as representative of these countries’ general adult population under the age of 75.

The samples in Brazil, Chile, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population. The survey results for these markets should be viewed as reflecting the views of the more “connected” segment of these populations.

This report includes comparisons with the results of surveys conducted on Global Advisor in May -June 2016 and September - October 2016 in most of the same countries as in the 2020 survey with comparable sample sizes.

The data is weighted so that each market’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the most recent census data.

The precision of Ipsos online polls are calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 4.8 percentage points. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.

Where results do not sum to 100 or the ‘difference’ appears to be +/-1 more/less than the actual, this may be due to rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of don't knows or not stated responses.

The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.